2023, Issue 2 (59). Abstracts
CONTENTS
E. L. Presman, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow School of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
I. M. Sonin, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; University of North Carolina at Charlotte, US
An inventory model where commodity prices depend on a continuous time Markov chain
We present an inventory model where a manufacturer (firm) uses for “production” a “commodity” (resource), which is consumed with unit intensity. The price of the commodity follows a stochastic process, modelled by a continuous time Markov chain with a finite number of states and known transition rates. The firm can buy this commodity at the current price or use “stored’’ one. The storage cost is proportional to the storage level. The goal of the firm is to minimize the total discounted performance cost. We prove the existence of an optimal strategy, which is defined by a vector of levels specifying the minimal commodity amount to keep for a given price. This is so called the “threshold” strategy. We also describe all situations when such a strategy is not unique. We present an algorithm to find an optimal strategy and the corresponding value functions. In typical optimization problems in continuous time involving Bellman (optimality) equation, a smooth pasting of the first derivatives of the value functions is used. A special feature of our model is that, in contrast to such situations, we have to prove and to use the continuity of the second derivatives. The inventory model described in our paper may have broader interpretation when resources are replaced by assets, consumption by demand, and storage costs by opportunity costs or transaction costs.
Key words: inventory model, Markov chain, optimality equation
JEL classification: C61, D25, D81
S. G. Belev, Institute of Applied Economic Research (RANEPA), Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
V. V. Veterinarov, University College London, United Kingdom; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
E. O. Matveev, Institute of Applied Economic Research (RANEPA), Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
Vertical collusion in public procurement: Estimation based on data for R&D composite auctions
One of the key problems in public procurement research is identifying violation signs, including vertical collusion. This paper discusses composite auctions (with a selection of a winner based not only on the price criterion) in the procurement for the results of research and development (R&D) work in Russia. Using the metric of interaction frequency, we identified suppliers that were potentially affiliated with customers. The results of econometric modeling suggest that potentially affiliated suppliers win with the final price closer to the initial maximum contract price (IMCP) than independent suppliers. This result is robust to specifi cation changes and different evaluation methods. Potentially affiliated participants have higher quality scores in contests with potentially affiliated organizers. At the same time, independent participants receive lower scores in such auctions. Therefore, a potentially affi iated participant could set a higher price, winning due to an overstated quality criterion.
Key words: vertical collusion, public procurement, composite auctions, R&D, affiliation, quality criterion, tobit
JEL classification: D44, D73, H57
E. D. Bobrovskaya, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia
A. V. Polbin, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Ye. T. Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow, Russia
Econometric modeling of the demand for short-term rental housing: The case of Airbnb in Moscow
The article analyzes demand determinants for short-term rental housing on the online platform Airbnb in Moscow. The study used a cross-sectional sample of listings that were active between March 2021 and February 2022. Spatial models were estimated to account for spatial autocorrelation. Spatial Durbin model was found to be the best for the available data. Direct, indirect and general effects were calculated for a correct interpretation of the results. Based on the results of the study, both the own price elasticity of demand (−0.68) and the cross-price elasticity (0.42) were determined. In addition, the article identified the main characteristics of apartments that affect demand. Characteristics related to the area of housing (maximum capacity and number of bathrooms), the availability of various amenities in the apartment and related indicators (paid parking, self-check-in, number of photos and instant booking, superhost status, response rate) have positive demand influence. The distance to the city center and the minimum rental period negatively affect demand. The results of the study were tested for robustness using various spatial weight matrices and alternative variables as rental price.
Key words: Airbnb, short-term rental housing, spatial econometrics, spatial Durbin model, demand determinants, demand elasticity
JEL classification: C21, R31, Z39
A. N. Stepanova, Faculty of Economic Sciences, School of Finance, HSE University, Moscow, Russia
D. S. Podukhovich, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Corporate Finance Center, HSE University, Moscow, Russia
CEO decision-making horizon and R&D investments. Evidence from Russia
Current paper raises the question of short-term decision horizon problem of a CEO and its influence on company’s future investments. We investigate the presence of such a problem on the Russian market on which this kind of problem seems to be more pronounced. In this paper, on a sample of 76 Russian companies from 2013 to 2019, we examine how CEO’s short-term investment horizon affects R&D in Russia. Firstly, we confirmed the existence of a positive relationship between the decision horizon and investment in R&D in the Russian market. In other words, the personal short termism of top managers significantly reduces company’s investments in R&D. Secondly, we showed that performance pressure on companies from the industry reduces the length of the CEO’s decision horizon. Moreover, if we shorten observation period and take pre-pandemic years 2016–2019, the influence of the CEO horizon on investment in R&D becomes stronger. The results of our research may have practical application in determining incentive contracts and bonus payments to top managers.
Key words: CEO decision horizon, R&D investments, CEO risk taking, CEO short-term, performance pressure
JEL classification: G30, G32, G34, G40
M. A. Rasstrigin, The Center for Strategic Research, Moscow, Russia
A. E. Kitaev, The Center for Strategic Research, Moscow, Russia
E. A. Pleshackova, The Center for Strategic Research, Moscow, Russia
Forecasting spending on orphan diseases to maintain the long-run financial sustainability of healthcare system
The paper deals with the rare diseases’ burden forecasting in the context of information gaps on these diseases. There are many countries pumping up public funding for rare diseases’ treatment despite lack of accurate data on patients numbers. This study is aimed at the formulation the one-size-fi ts-all approach for forecasting treatment costs of rare NCD. The approach is based on cohort component method and requires minimum exogenous data set. The model utilizing the proposed approach was developed for forecasting The Circle of Good Foundation’s treatment costs on cystic fibrosis and Pompe’s disease in 2022–2050. The authors found that forecasted number of patients in 2022 does not deviate dramatically from actual data for 2019–2021 and predicted cost pattern does not conflict with experts up to 2050. This supports study’s hypothesis that the quality of treatment costs forecast does not depend signifi cantly on prevalence and degree of knowledge of rare disease. The results will be of interest to government authorities, charity foundations and pharmaceutical companies for upgrading decision-making on funding rare diseases’ treatment costs and improvement market planning for new drugs in pharmaceutical companies.
Key words: rare diseases, orphan diseases, burden forecast, treatment costs forecast, NCDs, Cohort component method, The Circle of Good Foundation, orphan drugs
JEL classification: C53, H51, I18
V. V. Volchik, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
E. V. Maslyukova, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
S. A. Panteeva, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Russian innovation system in models and narratives
The article analyzes the development of the Russian innovation system (RIS) using narrative economics approaches as opposed to traditional econometric modeling. It allows us to expand the area of NIS studies by including the social context as a research subject. We conduct the analysis of Russian innovation system modeling in which we identify factors significant for RIS and concepts corresponding to them and compare the latter with the narratives presented in the media to meet the objective stated above. We find that community protomodels and narratives reflected in the media common in the scientific do overlap partially: for example, a strong convergence of ideas regarding the financing and effectiveness of RIS, human capital endowments is noted; on the contrary, ideas regarding the role of market structure and patenting rates are contradictory, which is partly due to the limitations of quantitative methods. These contradictions are due to peculiarities of each approach: quantitative methods are aimed at studying formal features, while qualitative ones, including narrative method, allow us to consider NIS through the prism of the actors’ processes interpretation and their social contexts perception.
Key words: national innovation system, innovation, narratives, narrative economics, protomodels, dominant ideas, national innovation systems modeling.
JEL classification: B52, O31, Z13
O. A. Anikeeva, Russian State Social University, Moscow, Russia
Third age: A new systemic social protection
The study is devoted to the analysis of basic changes in the concept of old age, the problems of social well-being of еlder citizens and the improvement of the system of their social protection. Particular attention is paid to the socio-economic aspects of the development of a new concept: the problems of working pensioners, the state of health of senior citizens and the introduction of a system of long-term care; the problem of training personnel for social work and social protection of older citizens, as well as the development and use of technologies for activating the life position of older people. The research is based on methods of interviewing the population, analyzing statistical and demographic data, comparative historical, social and structural & functional analysis. The conclusions of the study relate to combining an integrated approach in solving the problems of certain groups of elderly people with a personalized approach in social protection, in creating an infrastructure for social work aimed at activating the life positions of the еlder generation: accompanied employment and adaptation of working pensioners in the workplace; to change approaches to preserving the health of the elderly in the context of the long-term care system, the formation of a new national industry framework of qualifi cations. Solving these problems in both theoretical and practical formats will become the basis for the development of a new concept of old age and a new concept of social protection of the elderly, to solve the tasks set in the national project “Demography”.
Key words: elderly people, social protection, employment and occupation, long-term care system, active longevity
JEL classification: A13, D71, D78, H75
I. A. Efremov, Ye. T. Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow, Russia
Regional pattern of the impact of migration on the aging of the Russian population
The aging of the Russian population occurs simultaneously due to a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in life expectancy. Significant regional differences in the process of population aging in Russia makes it important to study migration as a factor in population aging at the regional level. On the basis of official statistical data on population migration and the age and sex composition of the population of Russia from 2015 to 2021, indicators of the average age of the population were calculated for each subject of the Russian Federation and for each year separately, as well as for the entire specified period as a whole. Migration has a rejuvenating effect on the age structure of the Russian population as a whole. The actual mean age of the Russian population between 2015 and 2021 was 39.756 years. Excluding the migration factor, the estimated mean age of the Russian population will be 39.833 years. In 37 regions of the Russian Federation, migration within the study period led to a rejuvenation of the age structure of the population, i. e. slowed down aging of the population, while in 48 regions migration only accelerated aging of the local population, contributing to the increase in the average age. The regions with the maximum rejuvenating effect of migration include mainly the territories of the Far East, northern Siberia and regions with the largest million-plus populated cities. The increase of migration more often and much more leads to the rejuvenation of the population than to its aging due to the fact that normally specifically the young are characterized by the maximum migration mobility. Of more interest is the seemingly counterintuitive rejuvenating effect of migration loss in some regions, in particular in many regions of the Far East and the Far North. This is due to the fact that the migration loss in such regions is concentrated in older working and younger retired ages. The conclusions of the work can help to take a fresh look at the process of population migration as a tool for influencing the demographic dynamics of the region.
Key words: mean age of the population, population migration, regions of Russia
JEL classification: J11, J140, J610, F22
L.Kh. Ivanova, Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Bashkortostan, Ufa, Russia
Modernization of the system of social services to the population at the regional level concerning the population aging
The aging of the population leads to an increase in the social obligations of the state. In these conditions, the state system of providing social services to the population requires modernization and the involvement of civil society resources to increase its effectiveness. In the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2014–2015, an experiment was conducted to denationalize the social service system to the population and create a competitive environment for the provision of social services at home, including for elderly citizens. An assessment of the effectiveness of changes and the possibility of using experience in other regions of Russia is given. The study showed that two bottlenecks are possible. The first is awareness and activity of providers of developing services. For many organizations, working with the elderly, using such a mechanism is unusual, and many suppliers are also insufficiently informed about these opportunities. But an information campaign and a well-established mechanism for sharing the best social practices will quickly eliminate such bottlenecks. But the second group of problems — insufficient motivation of the elderly to develop — is more difficult to solve. Therefore, it is necessary to implement separate projects to inform and motivate the elderly contingent to use certificates.
Key words: population, social services, older generation, education
JEL classification: J68
A. N. Shkrebelo, Russian State Social University, Moscow, Russia
Mechanisms for guiding the evolution of Russia’s social services system: Regulatory structures, processes, statistics and analytics
This article introduces a methodology for guiding the state’s social services system’s evolution, particularly in implementing a long-term care framework. It provides statistical and analytical data regarding Russia’s social services system from 2019 to 2021. The methodology was validated using this empirical data. The proposed methodology includes analytical work in regulatory and legal principles of functioning of the social service system, a set of proposed social services and mechanisms for ensuring access to them, the professional and informal resources involved to ensure the provision of services, costs, financial and economic issues of its functioning, as well as a comparison of the main statistical and analytical parameters of the functioning of the social services system of the state with relevant international benchmarks. The proposed methodology may be particularly in demand in countries where the social services system is in process of formation and the issues of its modernization are most relevant — the countries of the former USSR, a number of South American, Asian and African countries. Mechanism for determining and developing specific directions for the development and modernization of social services industry on example of the Russian Federation is proposed as a result of research.
Key words: long-term care (LTC), social security, social development, social services, elderly care
JEL classification: J14, J18, I18
Back