 | ||||||||
|
2023, Issue 1 (58). AbstractsCONTENTS
Democratic capital and economic growth in the countries of the third wave of democratization In this paper, we study the effect of democracy on economic growth. We provide an overview of theoretical models analyzing the relationship between political regime and economic growth, and characterize the existing empirical results. Theoretical considerations suggest that it is accumulated and not instantaneous level of democracy that affects economic development. In order to capture this idea, we introduce the notion of democratic capital. We estimate the impact of democratic capital on GDP per worker growth rates in a dynamic panel data model from 1990 to 2019 in a sample of 70 countries that have recently transitioned to democracy. Our GMM estimates show that for countries of the third wave of democratization it’s capital of democracy has a robustly positive impact on economic growth. The effect of democratic capital is most pronounced in Europe and Latin America, which can be explained by the prevalence of democracy in neighboring countries. Furthermore, the effect of democratic capital is most pronounced in partial democracies than in full or failed democracies, which can be explained by the trade-off between the governmental rent-seeking and public desire for redistribution. Key words: economic growth, political economy, democracy, democratic capital, discounting
On the connection between cultural values and personal income taxation The article explores the relationship between Hofstede’s cultural dimensions and personal income taxation, as it is, what was never done in the scientifi c literature. It briefly describes the current level of scientific discourse and history of thought development in this problem field, forming the theoretical basis for substantiating the assumed relationship. Using theoretical reasoning as well as comparative quantitative methods (logistic and linear regression analysis), the paper shows the connection between some of Hofstede’s cultural dimensions (power distance, individualism) and the establishment of progressive income taxation and top marginal tax rates. It is found that lower scores of power distance are associated with progressive income taxation, as well as higher tax rates. In addition, some potential mechanisms underlying this relationship are discussed. It is emphasized that cultural values can have two levers of infl uence on tax policy (bottom-up and top-down), since both the politicians responsible for designing tax systems and the citizens who shape the redistribution demand carry the national cultural values. The sample under study includes 115 countries at different levels of economic development. Key words: taxation, tax policy, national culture, Hofstede’s dimensions, comparative study
Long-term forecast of the replacement migration in Russia The population of Russia was declining since 2018 due to the growth of natural loss and the uneven dynamics of net migration, which only partially compensated for it. In the short term, even the most favorable scenario of Russia’s demographic development, which provides for high levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, leads to a decrease in the population from the current 146.2 to 145.2 million persons in 2026, and only after that point, a growth can be expected. According to the medium and low options, the population will decrease to 137.5 and 84.4 million persons respectively by the end of the century. This makes necessary to calculate a level of the replacement migration, which would compensate the natural decline and maintain the current population of Russia. The cohort-component method was used in forecasting, the population as of 01.01.2021 was taken as the base. Depending on various scenarios of fertility and mortality, the level of annual replacement migration growth in 2021–2023 should correspond to 460–1200 thousand persons, which is 2–6 times higher than suggested by the average, most realistic, migration scenario. The value is also 1.5–4.5 times higher than in high migration scenario. After that, the urgency for replacement migration decreases and from the 2040s, according to the average variant, the net migration will correspond to the upper, optimistic, migration scenario (450–500 thousand persons), which implies a greater probability of achieving it. In 2077, the level of replacement migration intersects with the average scenario of net migration (250 thousand persons), and in the period 2084–2100 corresponds to the lower scenario (60–70 thousand persons). According to the high variant, the level of replacement migration is rapidly decreasing due to a signifi cant increase in fertility and life expectancy and since the late 2030s even in the case of migration decline the population would not shrink. With negative trends of natural movement in the low variant, the level of required replacement migration throughout the forecast period is extremely high and unlikely, 1–1.2 million persons annually, which indicates the impossibility of stabilizing the population in this variant. Higher levels of immigration make possible to recoup the growth of the demographic burden only in the medium term, subsequently, the aging of the arrived contingents of migrants leads to an increase in the demographic burden of the elderly. Thus, to preserve the population, it is necessary to find a balance between relatively easy-to-manage migration flows and solving fundamental issues in the fi eld of reducing mortality and creating favorable conditions for the birth of the desired number of children in families. Key words: demographic forecast; compensatory migration; replacement migration; population size; demographic burden
M. A. Bida, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics, Moscow, Russia Factors influencing transfer policy of football clubs The purpose of this work is to identify the factors that form the market value of a football player. The study tests hypotheses about the influence of individual characteristics (age, height, weight), statistical performance indicators from local and international competitions both at the club level and at the national team level, expert assessments from the FIFA sports simulator, as well as injury history on the transfer value of a player, the number of days until the expiration of the contract, the number of transfers and the characteristics of the player’s agent. The selection of variables for the final models is made according to statistical criteria, as well as using Lasso and Ridge regressions. The analysis uses a linear model as well as a Heckman model in various specifi cations. The study showed a significant negative impact of injuries on the cost of a football player (a day in the hospital — 0.2% of the cost) and a positive impact of goals in EuroCups. In addition, the influence of agents on the cost of transfers of football players was revealed: large agencies reduce the cost of a transfer by 8%, other things being equal, but increase the probability of a transfer by 2%. The effect of «Neymar» is substantiated: prices in the football market after the transfer of a football player increased by an average of more than 20%. Peculiarities in the transfer policy of the clubs that planned to organize the «Super League» were also revealed. Key words: football, transfer, transfer market, football club, sports economics
Yu. V. Dubrovskaya, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Perm, Russia Evaluation of the effectiveness of administrative-territorial transformations in Russia In modern studies devoted to the issues of reforming the administrative-territorial division in the present and historical past of Russia, the point of view traditionally prevails, according to which the true goal of such transformations is to create not so much an economically efficient but a state-administrative territorial framework. However, most of these judgments are not supported by empirical evidence and quantitative estimates. Therefore, modeling the problem of the conflict of managerial and economic interests during the reform of the administrative-territorial division of Russia seems to be an interesting research task. Its solution will give a new assessment of the effectiveness of administrative- territorial transformations both in historical retrospect and in modern political realities. The authors collected statistical data for 135 years for studying the evolution of the territorial organization of Russia. The value of real GDP per capita in 1913 prices was chosen as an endogenous variable. As the main variables of interest, dummy variables were used, obtained according to the authors’ grouping of historical events and characterizing political and economic initiatives to change the territorial division of the country. As a result of modeling, it was proved that the transformations on the «crossroads» of the administrative borders of the regions (regardless of the declared goals) during the period under review contributed more to solving the political and managerial tasks of the Center than to the economic development. Key words: economic growth, administrative-t erritorial division, «Center-Regions» relationship system, spatial development
A. A. Upravitelev, St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia; European University Institute, Italy Neoclassical roots of behavioral economics Despite the fact that the names of a number of Nobel laureates are associated with behavioral economics, researchers regard this branch of science as an unorthodox, avant-garde research program. This article aims to fill this theoretical gap and link behavioral economics to mainstream of economic thought, as well as to divide behavioral economics into several directions — relative to the initial approaches or theories of neoclassics. In the first row of cases, we collected those approaches of neoclassical economics about economic behavior, in relation to which alternative concepts were proposed by behavioral economics. These neoclassical approaches are rationality, awareness, egoism of behavior. Another series is neoclassical theories, in dialogue with which theories of behavioral economics arose. These are theories of expected utility, game theory, exponential discounted utility, revealed preferences, rational expectations, efficient market. The sequence of development of behavioral economics we presented connects it, a once heterodox branch of science with the mainstream economic thought. The article can serve as a guide to the most important areas of research in behavioral economics. This study systematizes scientific knowledge and establishes methodological links within it. Key words: behavioral economics, economic methodology, research program, bounded rationality, prospect theory, neuroeconomics
L. B. Vardomsky, Institute of Economics RAS, Moscow, Russia Russian-Chinese economic links in the context of growing international tensions Economic ties between Russia and China have been growing rapidly since the early 2000s. They are becoming an increasingly significant element of international political and economic relations. The high dynamics of mutual relations is due to the combined action of economic, geopolitical and infrastructural factors. Mutual ties reduce the geopolitical risks of the development of national economies and ensure their stability in the face of growing pressure from the West. For Russia, the achievement of large-scale relations with China was a reflection of the departure from the traditional orientation towards Europe. The economies of the PRC and the Russian Federation structurally complement each other. After the implementation of large infrastructure projects, the Russian Federation has managed to use the factor of neighborhood with China more effectively in present context, while the countries border each other with less developed territories. The growth of mutual cooperation affects the formation of specialization and connections of the Russian regions. The shift of the Russian economy to the eastern regions will accelerate due to the development of transport and logistics functions, which will also entail a variety of production functions. The further development of mutual economic relations is determined by the nature of the dynamics of international relations and the level of coordination of the development of national economies. Key words: China, Russia, trade, complementarity of economies, political interaction, infrastructure, geopolitics, economic sanctions
Russia–India trade relations in terms of increasing geopolitical uncertainty The article is devoted to exploring of the current state and prospects of Russian-Indian foreign trade relations. Currently, Russia and India are not key partners for each other, since the industrial capabilities of both economies do not contribute to closer ties. Both countries have repeatedly noted the need to increase mutual trade turnover, and serious progress has been achieved in 2022 (primarily due to external factors). India has become one of the benefi ciaries of the current geopolitical circumstances, since it has not joined the embargo imposed by Western countries on Russian oil and petroleum products, but, on the contrary, India has increased imports from Russia. The country is demonstrating the independence of its foreign policy, but at the same time, India is in a focus for Western countries (USA, Great Britain, EU countries, Australia and Japan). The authors have identified well-established areas of Russian-Indian cooperation and identified both promising areas for further collaboration and existing problems. Key words: foreign trade, geopolitics, Russia–India, energy resources, partnership
I. A. Korgun, The Institute of Economics RAS, Moscow, Russia Multilevel liberalization in Korea, or why the Korean market remains diffi cult to penetrate For Russia’s ‘turn to the East’ to be successful it is necessary to promote export of Russian products to East Asian markets. This is rather a complex task, because despite a progressive liberalization of the last three decades East Asian markets remain relatively protected. The current paper deals with a case of the Republic of Korea. It reveals a multi-level approach to market liberalization in the Korean trade policy that step up from elements of preserved nationalism. The multi-level approach allows Korea to protect weak national companies and at the same time create opportunities for international expansion for stronger sectors of its economy. As a result, domestic companies get extra-support that distorts competition. Non-tariff barriers and monopolistic product markets are yet other factors that complicate successful positioning of foreign businesses in Korea. Using an example of a free trade agreement with the European Union research shows that such agreements are more effective for unlocking the Korean market. Besides, Korean government prefers FTAs over multilateral liberalization within WTO because they make it possible to take into account strategic economic interests of each trading partner. The paper concludes with some general recommendations on penetrating into the Korean market that can be useful for Russian companies that are making strategies to enter Korea. Key words: protectionism, market liberalization, Republic of Korea, turn to the east, the Korean market
M. O. Turaeva, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Russian-Vietnamese economic cooperation in new conditions The article considers the prospects for Russian-Vietnamese economic cooperation in the new geopolitical conditions, forcing Russia to intensify the «turn to the East» policy. It is shown that as a result of the reforms, Vietnam has managed to turn into one of the fastest growing economies in the world, deeply integrated into global production chains and economic ties, pursuing a multi-vector foreign economic policy, balancing between the largest players in the Asia-Pacific region. Despite the historically high level of diplomatic relations between Russia and Vietnam, economic ties between two countries are comparatively poor. It is concluded that the sanctions imposed against Russia by unfriendly countries will negatively affect the prospects for the development of economic relations with Vietnam due to the rise of transaction costs and the risks of secondary sanctions on Vietnamese counterparties. However, an adequate and realistic strategy of reorientation towards interaction with the countries of East and South-East Asia will help Russia to increase economic cooperation with Vietnam, as well as strengthen the development of its own eastern regions. Key words: Vietnam, Russian-Vietnamese economic cooperation, “Russia’s turn to the East”, economic sanctions, economic reforms in Vietnam, integration processes, Asia-Pacific region
G. B. Bulychev, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia The potential of Russia–DPRK cooperation: economic advantages and political disadvantages The article discusses the possible prospects for re-establishing economic and political cooperation between Russia and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in the current geopolitical situation. Despite the development of advanced cooperation between the USSR and the DPRK in historical retrospect, the change of the political regime in Russia led to a complete rupture of economic ties. In the new geopolitical reality and the challenge of Russia’s policy of “turning to the East”, it is noteworthy that DPRK takes a radical pro-Russian position on the conflict in Ukraine, which can serve a basis for re-establishing political and economic relations between two countries. However, the prospects for the development of large-scale cooperation between the Russian Federation and the DPRK at the moment seem rather vague, since the North Korean economy remains isolated, the country’s borders are still closed and the country is under UN sanctions pressure and a wide range of bilateral restrictive measures from Western countries for a long time, which blocks almost all forms of economic cooperation. The DPRK’s adaptation to restrictions and the development of mechanisms to circumvent sanctions by creating the necessary financial and logistics infrastructure allow the country to generate income and purchase the necessary goods and resources. It is concluded that with the final loss of Western markets, the importance of DPRK as a trading partner for Russia may increase. Key words: DPRK, sanctions, effectiveness of sanctions, economy of North Korea, UN Security Council, Russian–North Korean cooperation Back | ||
|