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2022, Issue 5 (57). AbstractsCONTENTS A. A. Ivanov On the algorithms of exact estimations of manipulability of social choice rules for the case of 3 alternatives Manipulation is a phenomenon when an agent or a group of agents misrepresent her/their preferences in the ballots in order to obtain a better outcome of the social choice. It has been proven that there is no not-dictatorial social choice rule which is nonmanipulable. There are two approaches to find the least manipulable social choice rules. The first one implies finding a theoretical formula for each rule. However, there are many known social choice rules and a list of manipulability indices which make this task very hard. The second approach is to generate a set of random profiles to obtain an approximate values of manipulability indices. We developed an algorithm which allows to get not approximate, but exact values of manipulability indices for any given social choice for the case of 3 alternatives. We provide the description of the algorithm, its optimizations, memory and time needed compared to the previously known algorithms, as well as the examples of the results. Key words: manipulability, strategic manipulation, social choice rules, voting
On the stability of results for aggregation procedures Some distortions are possible in the process of preference aggregation. For example, one voter who is pivotal for some preference profile may not read instructions properly and accidently submit wrong preference. We study how different voting rules react to these distortions for three, four and five alternatives with computer modelling. One of the results is: contrary to the results for the degree of manipulability estimations the most stable rule is the rule that requires less information from preferences when calculating final results — threshold rule. With more alternatives the difference between this rule and rules that require information about the whole ranking is more visible. So, for the rules that require less information the probability to influence the results goes down when the number of alternatives increases. Another result: the resoluteness (weighted average number of alternatives in the final outcome) is positively correlated with the stability of aggregation procedures. Threshold rule is the best one for the most cases when we consider both stability and resoluteness. Key words: aggregation procedures, voting rules, manipulability, stability, resoluteness, threshold rule
Global flows of technological knowledge: The position of Russia Technological knowledge, which is the basis for new technologies and innovation, is an important component of economic success — both on corporate and national levels. Such a role stimulates various actors to participate actively in the global race for talents who have this technological knowledge. The paper discusses if Russia is a successful participant of the race. It analyses the two datasets of patent documents (as for 2010–2019): 1) with Russian inventors and foreign assignees — to study the ‘outflow’ of technological knowledge from the country, and 2) with foreign inventors and Russian assignees — to measure the scope of its inflow. The results of the study demonstrate that Russia is still more a donor for the leading countries, than a recipient of technological knowledge from abroad. Russian inventors are actively involved into collaboration with foreign companies, being in demand in many global corporations, especially in the ICT field. The inflow of technological knowledge is less intense, and its key source is the post-soviet countries, in geographical proximity to Russia. One of the possible reasons for this disproportion is a lack of organizations in the country, capable to compete for talents on the global arena. Due to a specific business climate and a low interest of Russian business in R&D and innovation, an important role in recruitment of high-skilled specialists from abroad is played by the leading universities. Research institutes (including those of Russian Academy of Sciences) seem to be in the least advantaged position. Key words: knowledge fl ows, open innovation, STI collaboration, brain drain, technological knowledge, patent analysis
M. A. Kartseva, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting at RANEPA, Moscow, Russia Stay healthy – will the rest follow? The impact of health on wages in Russia In this article, we analyze the impact of health on wages in Russia in 2012–2019, using the data from the RLMS-HSE survey. As a measure of health impact we consider hour wages. Health is estimated by means of self-assessed health data. We use a Minсer-type wage equation. To take into account self-selection, we use the Heckman procedure to deal with the unobservable heterogeneity; we employ the panel structure of the RLMS-HSE data. The impact of health on hour wages in Russia is significant, but not great: good and very good health corresponds to an increase in earnings of 2–5% compared to average health for men and 1–3% for women. Bad health significantly reduces wages, but when self-selection is taken into account, its effect becomes insignificant. The impact of health on wages is markedly increased for groups with a low level of education, which, in our opinion, may indicate a greater importance of health for unskilled and physical labor. The robustness of our results was tested using an alternative data source. Key words: health, wages, education, gender, RLMS-HSE
Yu. A. Danilov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia Financial sector efficiency: Present concepts and the estimation problem This article presents classification of existing concepts of the efficiency of the financial sector. Proposed the hypothesis that assessments of the microeconomic and informational efficiency of the financial sector are fundamentally based on the concept of transaction costs. Suggested a number of indicators for assessing the macroeconomic efficiency of the financial market and their approbation on the Russian data. We identified four areas for assessing the effectiveness of the financial sector, differing in the level of consideration, recognition of the principle of rationality, accounting for transaction costs: assessing the macro-efficiency of the financial sector; information-efficient market hypothesis; the concept of adaptive markets. The assumption is formulated that the concepts studying the efficiency of financial systems at the micro level, as well as the efficient market hypothesis, are based on the principle of minimizing transaction costs. While there is a significant theoretical backlog on the issue of macroeconomic efficiency of the financial sector, there is a shortage of quantitative estimates, so we tried to offer a number of such indicators, focusing on the functions of financial markets in a developing economy. The article constructs the estimates of the macroeconomic efficiency of the Russian financial market from two sides of the process of transforming savings into investments (attracting investments by enterprises and placing savings by households). Key words: effi ciency of the fi nancial sector; allocative effi ciency; functions of the fi nancial sector; transaction costs; investor protection; operationally effi cient market; informationally effi cient market
N. A. Rozinskaya, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia Quantitative estimates of intergenerational mobility The article is about intergenerational mobility — one of the most important factors determining both the level of actual inequality in a society and the willingness of such society to tolerate this level. First part of the article provides a review of modern literature on quantitative estimates of intergenerational mobility. The main indicators and discussion issues related to the accuracy of assessing intergenerational mobility are considered, as well as methods for assessing the reasons for the dependence of heirs’ income on parental income. Second part provides an overview of the main approaches used in applied research in this area. Among them are the comparison of intergenerational mobility across countries and its relationship with social inequality, changes in intergenerational mobility over time, and the relationship between intergenerational mobility and economic growth. Particular attention is paid to the results of applied research based on Russian data. The original character of the work is in the fact that, giving an overview of research in the field of intergenerational mobility, the authors address not only the issue of what certain researchers claimed, but also what methods are used in the literature on intergenerational mobility to support the conclusions. Key words: income inequality, intergenerational mobility, intergenerational elasticity, quantitative estimates of inequality
M. B. Bakeev, Centre for the History and Methodology of Economic Science, HSE University, Moscow, Russia A compromise between formalism and realism as a way to influence economic policy In this paper, we argue that economics faces two conflicting societal demands. On the one hand, there is a demand for a practical theory that can be successfully used in the framework of economic policy, in solving various applied problems, etc. On the other hand, the established scientific ethos sets high standards for the internal consistency and formalism of the theory, which often limits its realism and practical applicability. As we speculate in this article, based on the history of the post-war macroeconomic mainstream, the most successful schools of thought in terms of policy impact are those that attempt to respond to both of these demands. This is expressed in the choice of a middle, compromise path: the preservation of a formalized abstract core of the theory while introducing modifications that increase its realism. Based on the study of the influence of four schools in macroeconomics, namely, post-war mainstream Keynesianism (so-called “The Neoclassical Synthesis”), monetarism, new classical macroeconomics, and new Keynesian macroeconomics, on US monetary policy, we claim that New Keynesians turned out to be the most influential school, as they managed to combine the standards of formalism and realism as much as possible. Key words: formalism, realism, monetary policy, macroeconomics, role of economics
Long cycles, the soviet authority and economists: From the history of discussions of the 1920s In perspective of intellectual history, the article studies Soviet discussions on long cycles. The study analyzes in detail the connection between Kondratiev’s economic and epistemological ideas, as well as the connection between the debate on long cycles and the political conjuncture of the 1920s. In particular, the article shows that criticism from L. D. Trotsky and Soviet economists prompted N. D. Kondratiev to turn to the issue of epistemology. The article also shows that we should not take the methodological criticism of Kondratiev’s opponents seriously because they were biased against him. In the mid-1920s, Soviet economists’ negative attitude to the idea of long cycles refl ects the conflict between N. D. Kondratiev and employees of the State Planning Committee, which escalated under the influence of the inner-party struggle. The attention of L. D. Trotsky, in its turn, was attracted to the idea of long cycle in connection with forecasts both attributed to N. D. Kondratiev and those formulated by him. The article publishes a previously unknown forecast, declared by N. D. Kondratiev in 1926, about the upcoming economic crisis and the dynamics of military and social conflicts at the turn of the decades. Key words: Kondratiev cycles, inner-party struggle, economic discussions, Trotskyism, intellectual history
A. Ya. Rubinstein, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences; State Institute of Art Sciences; Moscow Art Theatre School, Moscow, Russia A paternalistic state and civil society The society consists of many different groups of people interacting with each other, civil society and the state, the paternalistic form of which is not a phenomenon of recent centuries. Although the term emerged much later, the phenomenon itself emerged in early history, essentially simultaneously with the formation of families with their patriarchal paternalism. The transfer of the household form of paternalism to the state laid the foundation for the future paternalistic state. At the same time, modern state paternalism differs, as a rule, from the patriarchal model, firstly, by the collective nature of the generation of state interests — the public choice and, secondly, by the democratisation of the very process of formation of these interests. The theoretical and historical analysis provides basis for examining the process of evolution of the paternalistic state with its inherent risks of distorting public choice. The article identifies six stages in the evolution of the state and formulates the fundamental reasons for the failure of society, the state which allows the choice of goals of the paternalistic state that do not correspond to the interests of society, and erroneous strategies for their realisation. The analysis suggests that, having failed to create a mature civil society, for most of the thirty years after socialism the country has lived in conditions of sliding down to the fourth phase of paternalistic state evolution, to its decline and uncertainty of the future. Key words: state, state evolution, paternalism, paternalistic state, society, civil society, failure of society
A. A. Guseynov, Institute of Philosophy RAS, Moscow, Russia On state and society The article is based on my speech to the round table in the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the report of A.Ya. Rubinstein, R. S. Grinberg, A. E. Gorodetsky “Failures of society in a paternalistic state”. It shows that the presented in this report point of view significantly differs from the traditional and established in the public consciousness understanding of paternalism as a kind of tutelage and of the state as a legitimate form of violence. The authors associate paternalism with public choice, and consider the state as a socially unifying force. They develop the economic theory of the state, the value of which is overcoming the extremes of liberal and class approaches to the question of the role and place of the state in the historical development. Key words: state, paternalism, society, the failure of society
L. D. Gudkov, Levada Analytical Center, Moscow, Russia Inertia of state paternalism and its consequences The massive desire to change the state and political system of late socialism in the late 1980s — in the first half of the 1990s led to the emergence of many new public organizations and real competition between the political parties, to freedom of the media, religious associations, everything that forms a “society” as a system of social relations based on mutual interests and solidarity. These processes have given rise to hopes for the country’s exit from a long state of stagnation to democratization, turning it into a “normal country”, the same as other developed countries of the West. But by the end of the 1990s, the negative consequences of protracted and half-hearted institutional reforms turned into mass disillusionment with the ideology of reforms, distrust of democratic parties, the need for stability, craving for conservatism and hopes for a strong leader who could return “order” to the people, a sense of security, predictability of everyday existence, guaranteed prosperity and confidence in tomorrow. Illusions of the transition period were replaced by conservative views and the restoration of state paternalism as ideological residues of Brezhnev’s socialism. Data of sociological research shows, that hopes for the state paternalism over ordinary people are now combined with a pronounced distrust of the social institutions of state, political passivity and refusal to participate in public activities. Trust is limited only to the sphere of private existence. In this regard, “society” in the sociological sense can be considered per se only with a high degree of conditionality. Key words: state paternalism, society, ideology of socialism, mass social guidelines, institutional and interpersonal trust, responsibility, strategy of downward adaptation
A. P. Zaostrovtsev, HSE University, Saint Petersburg, Russia The failures of society: How to understand them? The article deals with the concept of the failures of society. First of all, attention is drawn to the value nature of this concept. What, from the point of view of an external observer, can be interpreted as a failure, for an insider will be a normal state. Moreover, the latter, perhaps, will not want to change life in the traditional environment familiar to him, which constitutes his social identity, for something else, which seems preferable for an external observer. The failures of society are described as far from reality lexicographical preferences. The most typical example is religious fundamentalism. With its dominance, the failures of society are inevitable. However, modern social dogmas, which have become widespread and strongly infl uencial in the West in the framework of the so-called new ethics, may well be interpreted as failures of society. As a result, the world has lost its orientation and authoritarian (neo-totalitarian) practices do not experience strong opposition. Assessing global processes, it is quite possible to state the failure of the Earth’s civilization as a whole due to the loss of an ideal image of the future. Constructivist solutions are not able to correct the state of affairs. The world will either heal itself through spontaneous institutional change or prolong its state of decline. Key words: failure of society, lexicographical preferences, values, religion, fragile states, decline of democracy Back | ||
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