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2022, Issue 4 (56). AbstractsCONTENTS M.B. Iskakov Existence theorems for Nash equilibrium and equilibrium in secure strategies The paper proposes a method for constructing existence theorems for equilibrium in secure strategies (EinSS) on the basis of the well-known existence theorems for Nash equilibrium. The system of definitions of the EinSS is interpreted as the development of the logic of rational behavior in the defi nition of Nash equilibrium. It is proved that under the condition of "strong threats" for the existence of EinSS, it is sufficient to fulfill the conditions of the known existence theorem for the Nash equilibrium only on the sets of secure strategies. This statement is formulated both globally and locally, and is an effective tool for application to practical problems. It opens up the possibility of constructing various particular existence theorems for EinSS. As a demonstration of the proposed approach, from the Debreu’s theorem of the existence of social equilibrium, the corresponding theorem of the existence of the EinSS is obtained. Key words: equilibrium in secure strategies, Nash equilibrium, competitive deviations, noncompetitive deviations, Nash equilibrium existence theorems, rational choice theory
Predicting the value of professional sport clubs. A study of European soccer, 2005–2018 This article aims to build a general valuation model that can be applied by investors and current shareholders of professional sport clubs from different countries and leagues. The study is based on panel data on the valuation of soccer clubs published annually by Forbes. Authors analyze all value-drivers that were used previously, expanding the time horizon (number of observations) and incorporating various models including linear and non-linear mixed effect regressions. The best performance is obtained using a mixed-effect model with treebased fixed part. The following determinants were found significant for the fixed effect: revenue and number of Google search requests. Analysis of actual deals in 2015–2020 confirms the model’s predictive ability. It is also shown that since Forbes overestimates the market value of soccer clubs, the proposed model predicts an upper bound on the real value. In this regard, transactions with real value exceeding the estimates are of particular interest. A deeper analysis of such transactions allows to identify additional "non-soccer" factors affecting the deal. Therefore, the proposed model can serve as a tool for the rapid assessment of a soccer club based on open data. Key words: club value, valuation of soccer club, sports investments, sports fi nance, mixed effect model
The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach In this study, we estimate the contribution of global demand, supply and commodity shocks to the dynamics of Russian macroeconomic variables. The main tool used in this work is a factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) that allows extracting global factors from a wide range of variables. Recursive and sign restrictions are used to identify global shocks. Russian economy is represented by a large set of informational series aggregated into a small number of factors. FAVAR approach allows for extended inference on the reaction of Russian macroeconomic variables to global shocks. Impulse response function analysis shows that Russian economy is affected by all three specified global shocks and forecast error decompositions indicate that those shocks account for nearly 80 percent of key variables dynamics. We also showed that global demand and global commodity shocks were more crucial compared to the third type of shocks in explaining macroeconomic dynamics. Key words: demand shock, supply shock, commodity shock, FAVAR, Russian economy
S. V. Kiselev, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia Russia’s agri-food exports until 2030: Projection from a partial equilibrium model Based on the applied economic and mathematical partial equilibrium model, the article estimates the volume of Russian exports of basic agri-food products until 2030. The results of simulation indicate a more dynamic increase in exports compared to the agricultural output. At the same time, grain and sunfl ower oil will remain the main products of Russian agrifood exports. Among the agri-food products presented in the study, sugar and milk exports will decline. The reduction in sugar exports is mainly due to a decrease in sugar production, while milk exports are influenced by growing domestic demand. In general, the supply of domestic products to Russian consumers is relatively stable, and the share of exports in agri-food products under certain conditions may increase from 19.6% in 2019 to 24.6% in 2030. Agri-food output is growing under the influence of technological progress, increasing consumer expenditures and export-stimulating measures by 5.6–6.5% compared to 2019, while measures to restrict the exports of grain and sunfl ower oil limit the growth of agri-food output to 0.6–0.8%. In this regard, the development of Russia’s agri-food sector is largely determined by the dynamics of real incomes of the population and the need to gradually abandon the application of export restriction measures. Key words: Russia’s exports, agri-food products, partial equilibrium model, BRICS, EAEU
M. M. Lobanov, Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; Moscow School of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia Typologization of industrial systems in the countries of Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe The differences between the countries of Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe in terms of socio-economic and, in particular, industrial development suggests the use of complex approach to their study. At the same time, the formation of industrial potential takes place in similar, but not identical institutional conditions, which allows the development of typologies and classifications as a result of qualitative and quantitative data generalization. We analyzed intraregional differences in indicators of industrial production dynamics, its role in the economic development, the supply and cost of labor resources, foreign trade diversification and the level of foreign capital penetration, structural rationalization and the efficiency of enterprises. In addition, on the example of the countries of the region, the relationship between labor productivity and the share of foreign companies in the production structure was studied. The proposed typology of industrial systems in CEE and SEE countries is based on a comparison of two groups of indicators characterizing 1) the main trend in the industrial development and its contribution to economic growth (reindustrialization, recurrent / repeated deindustrialization, persistent deindustrialization, secondary / market industrialization); 2) the efficiency of factors of production, the extent of involvement in global economic relations, the focus on the products with high added-value (intensive, extensive and transitional industrial development). Key words: Central-Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe, industrial systems, types of development, factors of production, structural transformation, reindustrialization, Fourth industrial revolution
S. A. Nekrasov, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia Decrease in differentiation of electric power supply in regions and sustainable development of the Russian economy Differentiation in (per capita) electricity consumption (.PC) between developed and developing countries is decreasing in the world. However, the difference between Russian regions in terms of this indicator in 1990–2020 increased. It is shown that an increase in differentiation in the electric power supply leads to an increase in imbalances in socio-economic development. The relationship between the low profitability of goods and services in the regions and low EPC was revealed. Unlike developing countries, where electricity consumption is limited by the possibilities of electricity production, in the Russian regions the limiting factor is the underdevelopment of electricity consumers. Under conditions of underdeveloped industry and low power supply, higher losses in power networks are characteristic, which causes a signifi cant increase in electricity prices for local industrial and agricultural consumers. Prerequisites are created for the transfer of industrial and agricultural production to regions with lower electricity supply costs. The mechanism aimed at preventing this negative trend is considered. As a result of its implementation, the modernization of production processes at electricity consumers will be initiated and conditions will be created for the emergence of new points of growth in these currently subsidized regions. Key words: specific electricity consumption, sustainable economic development, tectology, theory of technocenoses, labor productivity, price of electricity, depopulation of regions, profitability
D. V. Vinogradov, HSE University, Perm, Russia; Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom Institutional factors affect sustainability of public procurement of construction works in Russia Public procurement entities in Russia do not have to include environmental criteria in procurement, yet the strategic priority of the Russian government implicitly calls for it. We analyse such institutional factors affecting green public procurement, as the stringency of the law and the level organisation takes in the federal–municipal hierarchy. Our sample covers all procedures in public procurement of construction works in RF in 2019. International environmental standards are widely used in construction, suggesting procurement entities might be informed about existing environmental criteria. The data revealing green procedures is rather rare, and the strictness of the law reduces the probability of including environmental criteria in procurement. Organisations at the federal and regional levels are more likely to use environmental criteria in procurement than those at the municipal level. Corporations governed by the more flexible procurement law are more likely to use environmental criteria. With respect to energy efficiency, where clear guidance exists, the difference diminishes or reverts. Results indicate flexible legislation and clear guidance may reduce caution and through that contribute to wider adoption of green public procurement in Russia. Key words: environmental priorities, green procurement, public procurement, explicit incentives, implicit incentives
Lessons from the NEP experience for solving contemporary economic problems (to the 100th anniversary of the transition to NEP) The article analyzes the experience of New economic policy (NEP), some of its features, the study of which may be helpful in solving the problems of the modern domestic economy. Certain similarities are obvious between the mixed economy of the NEP period, which V. Lenin called state capitalism, and the modern market economy with the growing role of the state. Within the framework of the chosen topic of NEP lessons, five key research areas have been identifi ed: 1) selection of qualified personnel, 2) limitation of the excessive control system, 3) monetary policy, combining fighting inflation and stimulating economic growth, 4) a stable exchange rate of the domestic currency or devaluation; 5) attracting foreign capital. For each of these areas, the problems during the NEP period are highlighted. They were caused not only by the complexity of the economic recovery following the civil war. Contradictions in the ruling stratum of the Communist Party were also of great importance. The communists with high posts in the economy considered the development of productive forces to be the main priority and proceeded from the need to stimulate an increase in production. Party ideologists and apparatchiks, representatives of various control bodies, were guided primarily by political and ideological considerations. As a result of these contradictions, economic policy was often inconsistent. The study of the NEP experience lets us find the positive lessons that can be used in modern conditions, and those negative features that should not be repeated. Key words: new economic policy, NEP, human resources, control, infl ation, economic growth, devaluation, foreign investment
G. V. Safonov, HSE University, Moscow, Russia The prospects for ecological modernization of Russian economy Development of the Russian economy over the last 20 years was based on intensive exploitation of natural resources that has led to a significant increase of negative impacts on the environment, including growth of pollution and emissions of greenhouse gases. The environmental problems are also worsening on the global level, and the international community adopted several treaties aimed at reaching the goals of sustainable, socially, and environmentally balanced development. The "green" transformation of world economy leads to the fundamental changes in energy, industries, transport systems, switch to the eco-friendly business models, orientation of financial flows and investments towards decarbonization of world economy. Phasing-out of fossil fuels and pollution-intensive products may result in significant losses of export revenues, lack of access to capital and investment for Russia, if the ecological modernization of its economy would not happen. The projections based on TIMES model showed that Russia is capable to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75–88% below 1990 level by 2050, while GDP per capita would increase threefold. It would ensure reaching the carbon neutrality goal by 2060 and compliance with the international commitments under the ecological conventions and agreements. Key words: Russia; ecological modernization; climate change; decarbonization; low carbon economy
M. E. Dmitriev, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia Scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions for Russia The purpose of this study is to develop and quantify possible scenarios for the implementation of climate policy, as well as the opportunities for achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century or earlier. For this purpose, two scenarios are considered — basic and transformational. The baseline scenario includes measures that least affect the existing socio-political and economic interests with the greatest contribution from deforestation, modernization of technologies for the use of hydrocarbons in industry and cleaner transport. The limitations of the baseline scenario will not allow achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century. The transformational scenario takes into account the most realistic options for closing the gap between the offi cial scenario developed by the Government of the Russian Federation shortly before the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference and more ambitious options for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. In our transformational scenario, Russia reaches carbon neutrality 10 years earlier, by 2040, and subsequently turns into a net sink of greenhouse gases, including due to the huge potential of forest plantations. Key words: greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, carbon trading, climate projects, carbon capture and storage
A. A. Shirov, The Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia Low-carbon development of Russia under the foreign economic restrictions The article discusses the main factors influencing the formation of the of low carbon development strategy of Russia in a changing macroeconomic environment. The motives of the implementation of the climate agenda by various countries of the world are considered. A position is being formed that reflects Russia’s interests in the implementation of climate policy. It is noted that the key factor in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is technology change. In turn, the main limitation in this case is the capital intensity of the introduction of individual technologies. A key feature of the Russian economy is the need for structural shifts to ensure the sustainability of development in the medium term. In this regard, when implementing climate policy, modernization measures can be introduced to reduce GHG emissions. At the same time, investments in fixed assets will be the key factor in reducing emissions. It is shown that in the conditions of deterioration of foreign economic relations with developed countries and related technological constraints, both negative effects for the decarbonizartion strategy, as well as some positive shifts occur, determined by possible structural shifts in the Russian economy. Key words: climate policy, economic growth, low carbon development, structural changes, structure of economy
M. R. Salikhov, Institute for Energy and Finance; National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, Moscow, Russia Scenarios of transformation: Decarbonization of the Russian economy The paper presents a forecast of the structure of power sector in Russia in 2050 under various scenarios for the transformation of the energy system and the possible prices for greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions in the power sector by 2050 can be 32.7% lower compared to 2020 in sustainable development scenario (SDS) with an average CO2 price of $27/t over the period. In this scenario, the capacity structure will shift in favor of an increase in the share of nuclear and gas generation with a reduction in coal generation. In the scenario of zero greenhouse gas emissions (Net Zero), the price of CO2 is 37% higher compared to the scenario of sustainable development ($37/t). The implementation of the latter scenario will reduce emissions in the power industry by 40% compared to 2020. The article gives recommendations for changing the economic policy that would accelerate the decarbonization of the Russian economy and identifies key risks of decarbonization. Key words: decarbonization, greenhouse gas emission, CO2, emissions pricing, power sector, heat generation sector
T.A. Romanova, Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia; National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, Moscow, Russia The imperative of Russia — EU cooperation in climate policy is preserved After February 24, 2022, as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, the situation in Europe and the world as a whole has undergone significant changes, moving the issues of the climate agenda away from the priority list. But political-military aggravation in Europe does not eliminate climate change problems. The authors summarize the implications of the EU Green Deal for Russia and propose two scenarios for the possible collaboration between two actors: climate partnership and "business as usual". The main parameters of the two scenarios are outlined. Though climate partnership scenario seemed unrealistic by early June 2022, cooperation on the green agenda remains vital for both sides both in terms of dealing with global and regional challenges and for stabilizing Russia-EU interaction as a whole. The authors suggest recommendations to help Moscow and Brussels construct an optimal cooperation on climate in the medium-term perspective. The article is based on a study completed in 2021. Key words: Russia, European Union, Green Deal, climate change, decarbonization
T. A. Lanshina, Assosiation “Goal number seven”, Moscow, Russia Russian electric power industry until 2035: On the way to full transition to renewable energy sources This study presents two scenarios for the development of the Russian electric power industry for the period up to 2035 — the baseline and the energy transition scenario. The baseline scenario assumes that in the next 15 years the country will implement the policy envisaged by the key energy strategic documents. In the baseline scenario, the share of wind and solar generation will increase slightly — from 0.3% in 2020 to 2.2% in 2035, which will be significantly lower than in the vast majority of the world major economies. The energy transition scenario assumes the abandonment of the construction of new thermal power plants and nuclear power plants and the gradual decommissioning of thermal and nuclear power plants as their service life expires, with replacement by wind and solar power plants. Hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants, gas thermal power plants and biomass thermal power plants will collectively account for about 28% of permanent generation by 2035, which will ensure the stability of the energy system. The remaining share of generation will be provided by variable sources — wind and sun in a ratio of 2:1. The energy transition scenario provides for the abandonment of coal generation by 2030, from nuclear generation by 2060. Key words: energy transition, renewable energy sources
E.Sh. Gontmakher, Expert group “European dialogue”, Moscow, Russia Ecological modernization of Russia: Public request The success of Russia’s ecological modernization and decarbonization of the Russian economy can be ensured only by the joint efforts of all public institutions and, above all, the state, business and civil society. At the same time, it is difficult to assess the criticality of contribution of each institution. The only certain thing is: if at least one of the above-mentioned institutions is not involved in this activity, the probability of Russia’s environmental modernization success becomes extremely low. As world experience shows, public consensus on the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and specific measures to achieve these goals is extremely important. For Russia, which economy is built basically on the extraction, production and export of carbonintensive products, the transformation of the socio-economic model will have serious social consequences, therefore, building a dialogue with society, taking into account the real opinion of the citizens and developing measures to support the population for a fair transition to a low-carbon development model are of crucial importance. Key words: ecological modernization, low-carbon development model, civil society
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