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2022, Issue 1 (53). Abstracts
Analysis of macrostructural dynamics framed by the “input–output” methodology The purpose of this article is to publish the author’s method of the economy structural dynamics formalized analysis based on a dynamic model of input-output balance represented by a system of ordinary differential equations. The model is digitized based on the Rosstat data on the formation of the output of goods and services and elements of its own statistical research base. The methodological components of our work are the provisions of systemic, cross-sectoral and structural dynamic analysis. The presented theoretical and methodological statements, brought to a sequence of verified calculations, exploit the basic dynamic model of inputoutput balance, first published by V.V. Leontief in 1952. For many decades this model remained among so-called “purely theoretical constructions”, since it was never digitized. It was out of many computable models for two reasons: 1) degeneracy of the incremental capital capacities matrix (capital coefficients, as by V.V. Leontief) was believed to be indisputable; 2) the appearance of negative elements in the same matrix when attempting to digitize the model. The results of the work are as follows: the method to digitize the model; the method of numerical assessment of inertia and analysis of structural dynamics in macroeconomics. In a digitized form, the model is made up to solve the structural stability problem, to assess the impact of structural reforms on economic growth, and to analyze the internal / intrinsic dynamic properties of economic systems. This gives possibilities to use this model both independently corresponding to the application, and integrate into the advanced model complexes such as RIM — Russian Interindustry Model by IEF RAS (the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences). Key words: dynamic model, intersectoral balance, stability, economic growth, inertia
News and social networks of Russian companies: Degree of influence on the securities market The main purpose of this work is to determine the periods in which the profitability of the Russian stock market is partially explained by official information (RBC news) and unofficial (tweets of companies). The methodology of the study included a VAR model with a sliding window of 50 days. The empirical base of the study included 32 thousand news articles and 111 thousand tweets for 2011–2020. The assessment of the tonality of the text was carried out on the basis of the EcSentiThemeLex dictionary, this dictionary is one of the first dictionaries that allow assessing the tonality of economic and financial texts in Russian by five tonalities. The results of the study show that the profitability of the market is explained both by economic indicators (the price of oil and the exchange rate) and by the tone of textual information. Moreover, from 2011 to 2015, the tone of the news background was the dominant information factor in the profitability of the securities market, and in 2017–2020 — dominance has shifted to the mood of social media texts. A short-term period of influence of textual information was also revealed, sudden bursts of investor sentiment lead to a temporary jump in stock prices, which quickly return to close the initial level. Key words: text analysis, tweets, RBC news, stock market
The sentiment of private investors in explaining the differences in the trade characteristics of the Russian market stocks In our paper, for the first time, we examine the influence of the sentiment of private investors in social networks on the trade characteristics of stocks in the Russian market. Monthly return rates and trading volumes are analyzed under the control of financial indicators and indicators of the quality of corporate governance of stock issuers, as well as the changing external environment in the period from 2013 to 2020. The sample for various sentiment metrics is based on unique data: messages in the Telegram and mfd.ru platforms. The tonality of messages is diagnosed according to the authors’ method using artificial intelligence (neural network). The main conclusion is: the sentiment can be seen as an explanatory factor in pricing and trading activity. The influence of sentiment is non-linear. The author’s HYPE indicator of sentiment is proposed and compared in terms of explanatory ability of the trade characteristics with a wide range of proxy variables. The explanatory ability to identify differences is realized through regression constructions on panel data. It is shown that trade characteristics are more sensitive to the growth of negative messages, which is consistent with the postulates of behavioral finance. An increase in messages’ number of both positive and negative sentiment contributes to the growth of trading activity. An important practical conclusion is: following the crowd when the company is most intensely discussed will not result in high returns to an investor. Key words: mood; text processing; investor sentiment; tone of messages; neural networks; stock returns; trading activity
N.V. Myachin, St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, St. Petersburg, Russia Is there a natural rate of crime in Russia? According to the concept of the natural rate of crime the number of crimes committed in the long term depends not on the direct costs of society to combat them, but on the quality of the work of socio-economic institutions. Empirical verification of the presence of this phenomenon in some countries is reflected in foreign studies, while in Russia such works are more descriptive than applied. At the same time, determining the natural rate of crime is important for the strategic planning in the economy, as it allows minimizing the costs of combating crime and increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures. The purpose of this article is to check whether there is a natural crime rate in Russia. For this purpose the indicators of the crime rate in Russia from 1992 to 2020 are analyzed using unit root tests. We apply both conventional unit root tests and tests that take into account structural breaks and spatial correlation between the subjects of panel data, which are the federal districts. The results of the study allow to conclude that there is a natural crime rate in Russia for rapes, hijackings and traffic violations. In the context of the deterrence hypothesis, counteracting these types of crimes will lead to a temporary decrease in their level, which will inevitably return to its previous values. The author attributes the absence of a natural level for most types of Russian crime to the state of public institutions and the mobility of the institutional structure, as well as to the limitations of official criminal statistics. Key words: natural crime rate, unit root, deterrence hypothesis, institutional anomie, structural break, criminometrics, Dickey–Fuller test, panel data
D.A. Kochergin, St. Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia Stablecoins: Classification, functional features and development prospects The article is devoted to stablecoins and their prospects for use in the financial market. The authors propose the interpretation and classification of stablecoins and analyze their functional features and development prospects. Also impact of the global economic crisis on stablecoins is analyzed. The findings illustrated that stablecoins differ from traditional electronic money, as well as classic cryptocurrencies, and they can be interpreted as hybrid digital financial assets. Currently, the commonest digital coins with a stable rate are local stablecoins with backing. At the same time, both in terms of capitalization and transaction volume, dominated by centralized fiat-backed and gold-backed stablecoins. Decentralized non-backed stablecoins are not widespread, despite a number of technological innovations that may underlie their stabilization mechanism. The authors have identified main scenarios for the use of local and global stablecoins in the near future. It was observed that at a time of decreased volatility stablecoins are currently predominantly used as a tool to minimize the risk of price volatility in the crypto-assets market. In contrast, the growing interest in applying of global stablecoins under the new reduction volatility mechanisms, may encourage the extensive use of stablecoins in both retail and wholesale payments at the international level. In addition, the development of global stablecoins may entail risks to financial stability and the functioning of monetary systems, to minimize which it is necessary to develop a regulatory framework and financial procedures that take into account the possibility of a wide circulation of stablecoins. Key words: stablecoins; crypto-assets; virtual currency; distributed ledger technology; collateral stablecoins; algorithmic stablecoins; local stablecoins; global stablecoins
V.G. Chaplygin, WSB University, Gdansk, Poland Decision making on the technology transfer in regional innovation cluster under uncertainty and risk Regional innovative clusters unite various organizations related to high-tech industries, which is located in concrete region, on the basis of cooperative activity, common interests and complementarity to their functions, resources and capabilities. This accelerates research and development processes and provides market entry of final product that is of fundamental importance for competitiveness of manufactured product as well as of regional innovative cluster as a hole and region of its location. The paper aims to develop methods and recommendations on technology transfer in regional innovation cluster as a tool for optimization of risks of its innovation activity. They include the development of the methodology for decision making on transfer of technology in innovation cluster under uncertainty and risk. As a result, we made calculations on the conditional example, in accordance with proposed methodology. In conclusion, application of proposed methodology in regional innovation cluster allows to optimize risks at the stage of implementation of developed technology in the manufacturing of final product and to accelerate its market entry that can be considered as a factor of regional economic competitiveness. Key words: regional innovation cluster, technology transfer, methodology of receiving enterprise selection, implementation of developed technology, uncertainty, risk, fuzzy information environment, method TOPSIS, preference matrix, domination matrix, non-domination matrix
A.M. Litovchenko, Center of Economic Analysis & Prognosis at the Center of Strategic Research, Moscow, Russia On the impact of acquiring citizenship on some socio-economic characteristics of migrants and their position in the labor market The article discusses the possible impact of migrants’ citizenship of the host country on their socio-economic characteristics. The topic of the economics of citizenship (in various aspects) is extremely relevant and found wide coverage in foreign literature. In domestic practice, it remains poorly developed due to the lack of data suitable for such studies. Comparative analysis of the characteristics of migrants, usually migrant-workers, and the local population can be often found in the publications of the Russian scientists, but rarely investigated is the question of how the economic characteristics of migrants who have already become Russian citizens differ from those of foreigners. In 2019, for the first time in the modular survey conducted by Rosstat on the basis of the Labor Force Survey (LFS), information was collected on the migration status of respondents: their country of birth and duration of residence in Russia. Combination of these variables with citizenship made it possible to distinguish three groups of respondents: migrants who already have Russian citizenship, foreigners, and non-migrants. The work with microdata at the level of descriptive statistics showed, as expected, that foreigners differ significantly from other groups of respondents. On average, they are younger, less educated, have a higher labor force participation rate, and are more likely to work in labor-intensive sectors of the economy that do not require high qualifications. The minimal differences between non-migrants and migrants with Russian citizenship may be related to a large proportion of migrants who moved to Russia long ago. The significant shortcomings of the survey questionnaire, combined with a very low representation of foreigners in the sample (which does not correspond to their share in the Russian population), limited the analytical potential of the information. Identification of methodological problems of the LFS concerning the collection of information on migration and the development of recommendations addressed to Rosstat became a special task of the study. The main conclusion of the article was that the potential of the LFS is not used for a comprehensive study of international migration, and the inclusion of the migration module in an unchanged form in the program of the regular LFS for 2021 and further can make the problem chronic. Key words: migration, naturalization, acquisition of citizenship, integration, Labor Force Survey
Value of statistical life in Russia based on microdata Value of statistical life (VSL) is a widely used instrument for risk monetizing towards public policy planning in many developed countries. In Russia, due to the lack of data required for calculations, there are practically no credible estimates comparable in terms of methodology used, while those that are obtained using a different methodology hereupon differ significantly in magnitude. In our research, the value of statistical life in Russia is estimated using the comparable to foreign studies’ methodology, based on the RLMS-HSE survey microdata, the Russian (Rosstat) data, and the U.S. (BLS CFOI) data on occupational risks for 2018. The basic idea of this approach is to determine the willingness of employees to accept compensation for occupational risk. The resulting estimates of the VSL are in the range from 366,2 to 497,6 million rubles (2018). These values are significantly higher than all available estimates for Russia obtained using a different methodology but comparable to the corresponding values calculated with a similar methodology for the United States, considering the difference in GDP per capita at PPP. Key words: value of statistical life, revealed preferences, microdata analysis, risk compensating differential, occupational risks
M.S. Sushentsova, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, Moscow, Russia The nature of humanism and materialism of Marx’s concept of man This paper is devoted to clarification of Marx’s view of man in terms of his special humanism and materialism. The authors argue that Marx’s works contain normative elements and the basic value for him is free human self-realization. But this self-realization doesn’t serve as a mean for embodiment of certain human ideals; it is the end in itself. So, the authors qualify Marx’s position in comparison with other kinds of humanism as non-directed anthropocentrism. Marx rejects the autonomy of abstract ethics, as well as any abstract categories, and raises the significance of human practice as the process of life’s actualization. In this context, the historical materialism of Marx appears closely related to his conception of man as an active agent of history and creator of material world: significant part of material world is interpreted by Marx as the estranged and objectified human subjectivity; nature and man are perceived as the dialectical unity, and the first one acquires its significance only as the living space of the second. This allowed the authors to propose the term “subjective materialism” for defining Marx’s approach. Even in Marx’s later works, the historical task of developing productive forces appears to be permeated with the general humanistic goal of full human liberation and recovery its primacy in relation to the external world. And this task appears to be the key trend of the history in the Marx’s conception. Key words: Marx, Marx’s concept of man, humanism, anthropocentrism, subjective materialism, ethics, alienation, dialectics, fetishism, goals of historical development, communism
Yu.V. Simachev, National Research University "Higher School of Economics", Moscow, Russia Global advanced manufacturing markets — a new opportunity for Russia’s technological upgrade New technologies, including Industry 4.0, are rapidly changing traditional and high-tech industries, and forming the advanced manufacturing sector within the industrial complex. By now Russia has been characterized by a modest presence in the world advanced manufacturing markets – Russia’ share is less than 0.6% in certain markets and less than 0.4% in global advanced manufacturing. This is partially explained by the scarce commodity range in the Russian export basket, which determines weak representation of Industry 4.0 goods. Large part in the Russian advanced manufacturing exports is traditional for the Russian economy goods — airplanes, turbojet engines, fuel rods. However, we observe positive structural changes in Russian exports caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Russia has increased exports of goods with bio- and additive technologies, optoelectronics. It seems that the entry to new advanced manufacturing markets for Russia can form the basis for long-term growth. International experience shows that advanced manufacturing exports are often supported by advanced manufacturing imports. We find that Russian economy significantly underutilizes this channel. Although Russian advanced manufacturing imports are gradually growing, it is focused primarily on final consumer goods. We consider industrial robots as a case of advanced manufacturing imports that deserves special attention as a widespread cross-cutting technology that can significantly transform the technological level of industries. Our estimates show that, although the robotics market in Russia is relatively small and has low growth rates relatively to investment in fixed assets, companies importing industrial robots are larger and more productive. This evidence allows us to determine the import of industrial robotics as one of the priority directions of modernization of the Russian manufacturing. Based on the analysis we identify and discuss three growth opportunities for Russia in global advanced manufacturing: 1) support of exports of services in optoelectronics and ICT through the use of accumulated human capital and competencies and taking into account fast transformation of business models in industry, 2) support of exports of biotechnology products, taking into account positive reputational effects and expanding Russian pharmaceutical exports under the COVID-19 pandemic; 3) support of technology companies in wide number of advanced manufacturing taking into account current favorable environment for the birth of tech startups in Russia. Key words: advanced manufacturing, Industry 4.0, international trade, COVID-19, industrial robots, biotechnology, optoelectronics
S.P. Zemtsov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia Technological entrepreneurship as a development factor of Russia Technological entrepreneurship is a potential driver of Russia’s socio-economic development. But an optimal combination of environment and business networks (entrepreneurial ecosystem) to be formed is very rare and depends on many factors. The article discusses the potential role of technology start-ups in diversification, economic and employment growth, and adaptation to technological changes. The number of start-ups in Russia had decreased since 2015, and there is a low entrepreneurial activity in comparison with other countries. In general, the change in the industry structure of startups in Russia is consistent with the global trends; the role of knowledge-intensive business services and ICT is high and growing, the share of manufacturing is declining. We revealed the determining role of socio-cultural factors, human capital and universities, business climate and access to foreign markets in the creation and success of technology companies, as well as the contradictory impact of state support. Significant and increasing role of immigrants and diaspora abroad is underestimated for Russia. We noted the inability of the widespread development of successful technology companies (“gazelles”, “unicorns”); identified regional and sectoral priorities for public policy. We examined the main elements and models of national entrepreneurial ecosystems, limitations and prospects for their application in Russia. Key words: startups, entrepreneurial ecosystem, economic growth, human capital, venture capital, unicorn companies, return migration, entrepreneurship policy
N.V. Smorodinskaya, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Russia’s opportunities for entering Industry 4.0 markets by improving its position in distributed production The paper attempts to clarify Russia’s possibilities to enter the advanced manufacturing markets (Industry 4.0) through participation in global value chains (GVCs). We analyze transformations in GVCs, generated by the renewal of global business strategies (transition from mass offshoring to smart-sourcing, manufacturing servitization, strengthening of GVCs’ resilience and their digitalization), and how Russia corresponds to them in its accumulated but not yet realized comparative advantages (in the field of science and education, development of digital sectors, transportation of goods between Europe and Asia, etc.). We conclude that in the 2020s, Russia has an objective chance to advance to new export markets by entering into both traditional and new service niches of sophisticated industrial GVCs. But to realize this chance, Russia needs a serious adjustment of its structural policy upon considering not only technological, but also institutional and behavioral shifts in the distributed production. Key words: global value chains, Industry 4.0, distributed production, manufacturing servitization, industrial policy, digitalization
D.E. Tolmachev, Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Russia Technological entrepreneurs of the Russian origin: Education, geography, industries Among the outstanding technology startups of the international level, there are often companies created by the Russian founders: Telegram, Revolut, Miro and many others. The authors wondered how the technology startups founded by Russians were distributed around the world and how many stayed in the country. This led to a few related issues. In which jurisdictions are tech startups with the Russian origin more comfortable to exist and why, where it is more probable to attract higher investment, in which industries Russian founders create startups? The issue of determining the “Russian origin” of the founder deserves special attention. The authors define it through higher education: if the founder received a Russian higher education, then, regardless of citizenship and nationality, he is considered as a Russian. The study analyzes the educational trajectories of the founders, the connections of headquarters’ locations with origins of the founders, the profiles of the founders (age, work experience and other characteristics). The role of universities in the education process of technological entrepreneurs is revealed, including the potential for generating technological entrepreneurs in various regions of the country. The authors conclude that while the absolute amount of investment attracted in Russia is maintained at the same level, its share is falling. The number of technology startups choosing Russia as their main jurisdiction is also decreasing. Results show that success in attracting investment is positively affected by the early experience in launching a startup (university years), as well as by technical education. The authors state the difference in the industry structure of startups created by the Russians from the world average in favor of IT, robotics, and artificial intelligence to the detriment of medicine, trade, and business services. The conclusion is: universities in such cities as St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk are poorly using the potential of generating technological entrepreneurs. Key words: technological entrepreneurship, higher education, startups, university, business school
I.G. Dezhina, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russia High-tech landscape of the cattle breeding industry in Russia Modern animal breeding is a high-tech industry. It utilizes advances in genetics, biotechnology, and the Internet of Things. In Russia cattle breeding is characterized by high dependence on imported technologies and genetic material, the share of which is up to 90–100%. The domestic scientific and technological potential has had weak incentives to develop in recent years. The aim of the article is to identify, on the basis of patent analysis, scientific and technological areas in cattle breeding with sufficient scientific potential, and areas where domestic potential is insignificant, but it is critically important to develop it. The analysis for the period 2006–2020 in four technological areas — biotechnology, veterinary medicine, feed production and smart farming technologies, — shows that the main patentable developments of Russian applicants are concentrated in veterinary medicine and feed production. This is mostly the legacy of Soviet scientific schools. Modern technologies, especially biotechnology, are undeveloped. Possible solution is to develop technological capacity by licensing foreign technologies and the localization of production. Key words: cattle farming, dairy and beef cattle breeding, technological development, scientific research, import dependence, patenting, Russia
N.I. Ivanova, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Pharmaceutical industry in Russia: Key trends and developments The paper considers the specifics of innovation activity and scientific and technological development in R&D intensive pharmaceutical industry. A generalized comparison of Russian and foreign pharmaceutical industry during the current COVID-19 pandemic is carried out. The dynamics of the domestic pharmaceutical market development is analyzed; the trends and persisting problems are studied. The potential of growth of domestic pharmaceutical industry with adequate interaction of state and business in entering the world markets was shown. It is pointed out that both abroad and in Russia during the pandemic the industry became one of the few where research costs had increased significantly. The paper shows that support policy for pharmaceutical industry in Russia over the next 10 years will be emphasized on the creation of own innovative drugs (including biotech types), and generics for the domestic market. The new ways of production and digitalization of the pharmaceutical industry remain outside the current support measures. Key words: pharmaceutical industry, Russian pharmaceutics, innovative development, high technologies, innovations, R&D Back | ||
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