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2021, Issue 3 (51). Abstracts
Stable systems of schedule contracts The paper studies the systems of paired contracts between agents of two complementary groups (workers and firms, students and universities, depositors and banks). Multiple contracts are allowed, as well as flexible contracts when the contract is concluded with some intensity. Agent preferences are described using choice functions. It is shown that if these choice functions satisfy the condition that we call conservativeness, then there are so-called stable systems of contracts, when it is unprofitable for any pair of counterparties to change the concluded contracts. The existence of a stable system of contracts is established using the transfinite process of sequential approximation, which generalizes the classical Gale−Shapley algorithm. As a result, we relieved of the finiteness conditions of the set of contracts. Such properties of stable systems as polarization and latticeness are also studied. Key words: choice function, Gale−Shapley algorithm, matching, lattice
Tax evasion and R&D subsidy in a mixed market In this paper I consider a mixed duopoly where a private firm competes with a public one. The private firm maximizes its profit and the public firm maximizes social welfare. R&D investments of firms are subsidized by the government, profits of both firms are taxed and the private firm might evade taxes. It is shown that tax evasion (decision not to declare part of profit) directly affects a rate of the optimal R&D subsidy and makes it dependent on a profit tax rate. While making a choice on the rate of the R&D subsidy the government takes into account both positive and negative effects of the subsidy on social welfare. On the one hand the R&D subsidy results in a decrease in total production costs because an allocation of total output between two firms is improved; on the other hand it results in an increase in social costs of tax evasion. The optimal R&D subsidy decreases with an increase in a profit tax rate and increases with an increase in tax evasion costs. An equilibrium allocation is not efficient, but an increase in tax evasion costs leads to the reduction of difference between efficient and equilibrium welfare levels. Key words: mixed duopoly, corporate taxes, tax evasion, R&D subsidy
Digitalization as a driver of economic growth: Does only infrastructure matters? The development of digital technologies leads to significant changes in all sectors of the economy. However, digital transformation is a complex process, depending on various factors, such as the availability of digital infrastructure, the level of readiness of digital technologies, the availability of qualified personnel who are able not only to collect data, but also to identify dependencies in them and use these results to increase productivity and scale different types of activities. During the coronavirus pandemic, the relevance of the introduction of digital technologies increases due to the need for social distancing, including the exclusion of a person from certain stages of production, as well as the need to coordinate a large number of people and devices not related to workplace. This article considers the impact of digital technology development on macroeconomic parameters, in particular, economic output by analyzing the system of simultaneous equations that takes into account not only the production function of the economy, but also the equilibrium in the ICT services sector on the data of Russian regions. The obtained results show that along with the possibility to use broadband access to the Internet, the quality of its use also matters: 1% growth in the number of broadband access subscribers on average leads to a 0,1% increase in output, in addition, an increase in the intensity of digital technology use on 1% leads to an additional 0,05% increase in output. Key words: digital economy, economic growth, new technologies, ICT sector, online platforms
O.A. Demidova, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, Moscow, Russia Spatial aspects of wage curve estimation in Russia The wage curve is traditionally defined as the negative relationship between wages and unemployment rates (taking into account various control variables). It was empirically shown that the wage curve exists in some countries, including Russia. However, usually in such studies with data for the Russian regions, the mutual influence of Russian regions is not taken into account. This could create the problem of omitted variable bias. In this paper, we took into account the corresponding impact using spatial-econometric models and gave a detailed interpretation of the results. The estimate of the parameter reflecting the effect of unemployment on wages in the model without spatial effects is almost twice the corresponding estimate in the models where these effects are taken into account. According to panel data for 2005–2018 for 81 regions we estimated the partial marginal effects of changes in unemployment in one region on wages in the other regions. Similar calculations were made for the other variables. Using partial marginal effects, we found for each region: 1) the regions most affected by this one, 2) the regions, changes in which will most likely affect the selected one. This is important, for example, for assessing consequences of government programs etc. Key words: wage curve, unemployment, spatial models, marginal effects
E.V. Balatsky, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences; Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia Institutional reforms and human capital The article focuses on the interaction between institutional reforms and human capital. The Stevenson depopulation phenomenon is the starting point of the analysis. The stylized examples allow to highlight the impact of reforms on human capital, including vitality, health and life expectancy. Within the framework of an interdisciplinary approach, it is shown that many psychologists, sociologists, political scientists, doctors and linguists share the opinion about the impact of institutional changes on the viability of the population. The proposed simple model of economic growth demonstrates the principle of the need to dose reforms, i.e. to limit their scale, depth and speed of implementation. This strategy in contrast to shock therapy is called adaptive reform. The article examines the interaction between institutional reforms and human capital. As a starting point of the analysis, the phenomenon of Stevenson’s depopulation is used, which consists in the mass extinction of the natives of Polynesia under the influence of the forceful imposition of new standards of life by the colonists. These stylized examples allow us to focus on the impact of reforms on human capital in terms of the vitality, health and life expectancy of an individual. The analogy between the phenomenon of Stevenson’s depopulation and the decrease in the population during the institutional reforms in Russia in the 90s is considered. Within the framework of an interdisciplinary approach, it is shown that many psychologists, sociologists, political scientists, doctors and linguists share the opinion about the impact of institutional changes on the viability of the population. The main thesis of these studies: a person’s health is not only inside him (his body and consciousness), but also outside (in the social environment and psychological environment). A simple model of economic growth is proposed, from which the paradox of reforms follows, when productive institutional changes generate an economic downturn. The analysis of the conditions for the emergence of this paradox shows that the scale, depth and speed of reforms should be strictly dosed, otherwise their negative impact on people can outweigh the positive organizational effect inherent in them. It is shown that in addition to institutional changes, technological progress also has a destructive impact on human capital, which is also incorporated into the proposed model of economic growth. Key words: institutions, reforms, economic growth, adaptive reform, human capital
A.M. Grebenkina, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia Difference in intensity of exchange rate factors in countries with targeting inflation regime The paper analyzes features of prime factors of nominal exchange rate in countries with inflation targeting regime and high cross-border financial openness. The paper aims to test the hypothesis about different strength of these factors in developed countries and emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a panel vector autoregressive model and panel data for 2010 — 1st half-year 2020 period for 9 developed countries and 10 EMEs, the paper estimates significance of factors from the side of global commodity and financial markets, as well as the side of national monetary policy. The paper finds some evidence of greater sensitivity of EMEs’ nominal exchange rate to global commodity and financial market factors and a greater sensitivity of developed countries’ nominal exchange rate to national monetary policy. The paper regards this result as an argument for EMEs’ exchange rate policy specification, considering the necessity to cope with heightened exchange rate volatility in these countries under the influence of external factors. Key words: inflation targeting, nominal exchange rate factors, countries comparative analysis, PVAR-mode
I.A. Shubin, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia Correlation between economic complexity and economic development in different types of Russian regions Economic complexity, according to the results of various studies at the country level, can be used as an indicator of economic development: more developed countries usually have a higher level of economic complexity. For Russian regions, the relationship between economic complexity, the level of innovative development and investment attractiveness is also revealed. This paper identifies the correlation between the complexity of export and the level of economic development for Russian regions and their separated more homogeneous groups. The results obtained by the author for regions of Russia contradict the rule identified for countries. For all Russian regions, there is a slight inverse correlation between the complexity of export and the value of per capita GRP. A slight positive correlation was found only for regions with a low export-to-GRP ratio and a high level of economic complexity. Such results are explained by the simple structure of Russian export, because of this the main recipients of export income are regions with a lower level of economic complexity — mainly oil and gas producing regions, as well as capitals that act as intermediaries. Key words: Russian regions, economic complexity, export, economic growth
Mercantilism, world-system hegemony and protoanalysis of national competitiveness The article represents in a world-system retrospect the European mercantilist discourse versus William Petty’s “Political Arithmetic”. It is revealed that the elevation of the Dutch Republic (the United Provinces of the Northern Netherlands) as the first hegemonic power of the emerging capitalist world-system during 17th century, made this land the “reference area” of the balance-of-trade doctrine. It is demonstrated that W. Petty gave the most insightful and profound explanations of the commercial success and industrial competitiveness of Holland, including various structural and institutional aspects. It is exposed that, unlike other proponents of the doctrine of an active trade balance, Petty did not limit himself to characterizing the Dutch leadership in shipbuilding and navigation and transit trade. He recorded the advanced development in Holland of diversified agriculture (rotation of crops, dairy farming and industrial crops), energy (wind mechanization) and the manufacturing industry (especially on far-delivered raw materials). It is explained in the context of world-systems approach that Petty reflected the core–peripheral structure of the emerging system of the international division of labor and noted that the fastening of the specialization of European countries East of the Elbe in laborious agriculture was the seamy side of the Dutch domination in oversea trade and their specialization in highly profitable industries. In comparison with M. Porter’s “diamond of national competitive advantages”, it was explicated that W. Petty in “Political Arithmetic”, using the example of Holland, actually analyzed three of the four main elements of national competitiveness: 1) parameters of production factors; 2) segment structure and other demand conditions; 3) the presence in the country of related or supporting industries that are competitive in the international market. The foresight of Petty as a forecaster is noted, which allowed him to discern the essential signs of the rise of England as a new hegemonic power in the next systemic cycle of capitalist accumulation. The distinctive features of England as the reference area of Physiocracy and classical political economy are briefly characterized, in contrast to the Dutch reference area of the trade balance doctrine. Key words: balance-of-trade doctrine, Dutch “reference area”, world-system hegemony, diamond of national competitiveness, core-peripheral structure, axial division of labor, Industrial revolution
S.P. Zemtsov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia New technologies and regional development in the modern period The article describes the possible impact of modern technological changes (disruptive technologies, digitalization, and automation) on regional development in Russia based on the patterns of geography of innovations and previous trends. The rates of non-resource growth over the past twenty years have been higher in those regions where inventive activity, intensity of R&D expenditures, share of researchers and employees with higher education were higher, but the same relationship cannot be traced with the intensity of the use of advanced production technologies (automation) and the availability of the Internet. During the declared pandemic in Russia in 2020, patent activity in the vast majority of regions decreased, the processes of production automation slowed down, but digitalization accelerated in terms of internet access and the development of online commerce. The creation of disruptive technologies is still concentrated in large cities and super-regions due to agglomeration effects, knowledge spillovers and concentration of human capital. But the effects of their introduction and distribution can be differentiated. In the leading regions with high proportion of creative professionals and entrepreneurs, development may accelerate, in old industrial regions, automation will increase the risks of temporary unemployment and inequality. For the least developed territories, the lack of digitalization potential and lack of highly qualified personnel may further worsen the situation. Key words: technological revolution, digital economy, human capital, automation, innovation, R&D, nonresource growth, Russian regions, pandemic
N.V. Zubarevich, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting (INSAP), Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia Regions of Russia during a pandemic: Socio-economic dynamics and budget revenues It is difficult to identify the most and the least affected regions in the pandemic crisis, since the dynamics of different indicators did not coincide. Industrial output decline was deeper in oil-extracting regions. Agglomerations of federal cities, recreation regions of the South and the republics of the North Caucasus had the strongest decline in the service sector. The dynamics of labor markets in the regions during the pandemic strongly depended on institutional factors – state support for employed in small businesses and assistance to the unemployed. Small business employment in most regions did not decline. The level of registered unemployment grew faster in the largest agglomerations, and the slowest emerging from the crisis were the underdeveloped republics. After a strong decline in the population incomes in the 2nd quarter of 2020 due to lockdowns, a gradual convergence of regional dynamics began, but without a noticeable improvement. In terms of population income and employment, Moscow is recovering from the crisis much faster thanks to its huge competitive advantages. The dynamics of own revenues of regional budgets during pandemic is associated with the structure of the economy and the importance of profit tax in the budget revenues. The largest losses in 2020 were experienced by the oil-extracting regions due to a sharp reduction in profit tax. Since 2021, the own revenues of the budgets of metallurgical regions grew the fastest due to a threefold increase in this tax. Lockdowns in the first wave of the pandemic turned out to be less significant because the number of regions with a decline in their own revenues in the 2nd quarter of 2020 was 1,5 times less than in 2020. Key words: pandemic crisis, regions of Russia, dynamics of industrial output and services, unemployment rate, money incomes, regional budgets
V.V. Klimanov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia Fiscal decentralization in pandemic and post-pandemic times In 2020, many countries, including Russia, faced a unique situation in which subnational authorities were forced to take on new powers to combat the pandemic and its consequences. At the same time, fiscal decentralization, which can be characterized by indicators of decentralization of income, expenditures or as tax decentralization, has decreased. The share of intergovernmental transfers in the revenues of regional budgets has increased. Before that, attempts to increase the role of the regional level in the country’s budget system were made in Russia, but they usually ended in failure. The article shows that the multidirectional trends of the 2020 crisis determined the new state of regional budgets and their dependence on the federal center. At the same time, it is transfers from the federal budget that have become the leading factor in resilience to shocks in regional budgets. Key words: regions, Russia, decentralization, fiscal resilience, regional budgets, intergovernmental fiscal relations, intergovernmental transfers
O.V. Kuznetsova, Federal Research Center “Informatics and Control”, RAS; Plekhanov Russian Economic University, Moscow, Russia Spatial development in the post-COVID period: New challenges or old problems? The article shows that the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has not lead to the emergence of fundamentally new patterns of spatial development, but has escalated its old problems. Thus, the importance of the largest cities in the country’s economy has not decreased at all. On the contrary, their traditional advantages have revealed, including those connected with an increased level of education of residents. But at the same time, the most important problem of the largest cities has also aggravated, and cannot be ignored — that is strong social stratification of citizens. The development of remote employment, the scale of which will obviously be greater than pre-crisis, may lead to changes in the settlement system within urban agglomerations, but not beyond them. This is due to the potential dominance of not completely remote, but combined employment, which is necessary to ensure the transfer of implicit knowledge. But even within urban agglomerations, the possible scale of changing permanent residence due to a number of factors (climate, features of the housing stock, availability of infrastructure facilities) is very limited, the most important will be an increase in the duration of stay in dachas. This will further aggravate the existing complex of problems associated with the extremely weak consideration of the actual life of people on two houses in the activities of the authorities. Key words: major cities, urban agglomerations, rural areas, remote employment, COVID-19 pandemic
A.O. Yushkov, Leontief Centre, St. Petersburg, Russia; Indiana University, USA The fiscal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Russian regions: An overview of federal support measures The Russian regions were negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In most regions, corporate income tax revenues and small business tax revenues significantly declined, while heath care and social policy expenditures increased. The federal government responded to this challenge by increasing federal transfers to regions by roughly 50% compared to 2019 (up to 3,8, trill RUB.) Despite significant federal fiscal support, many transfers were nontransparent and irregular, while the structure of intergovernmental transfers and the strategy used by the federal government were changing considerably throughout the year. In this article, we analyze the structure of federal fiscal support to the regions and compare the largest intergovernmental transfers in 2020 and 2019 by their type (unconditional transfers, subsidies, subventions, and other transfers). We pay particular attention to non-transparent forms of federal fiscal support, namely, discretionary unconditional transfers and other transfers from the reserve fund of the Russian federal government. Key words: fiscal federalism, regional budgets, intergovernmental transfers, COVID-19 pandemic Back | ||
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