2021, Issue 2 (50). Abstracts
A.P. Koldanov, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Nizhnii Novgorod, Russia
P.A. Koldanov, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Nizhnii Novgorod, Russia
D.P. Semenov, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Nizhnii Novgorod, Russia
Confidence set for connected stocks of stock market
The problem of analysis of pairwise connections between stocks of financial market by observations on stock returns is considered. Such problem arise in stock market network analysis. It is assumed that joint distribution of stock returns belongs to the wide class of elliptical distributions. Classical Pearson correlation, Fechner correlation and Kendall correlation are used as measure of dependence. The construction problems of sets of stocks with strong connections between its returns are investigated. The construction problems of sets of stocks with strong connections between its returns are investigated. To construct such sets the multiple hypotheses testing procedures on values of correlations are used. The properties of these statistical procedures are investigated by simulations. The simulation results show that procedures based on individual Fechner and Kendall tests lead to such sets of stocks with given confidence probability unlike procedure based on Pearson individual tests which do not control the confidence probability. At the same time it is emphasized that for Student distribution the constructed set is nearly the same to the confidence set. The procedure of consistency testing with elliptical model is proposed and exemplified. The peculiarities of the model are discussed.
Key words: Network model of stock market, threshold graph, Pearson correlation, Kendall correlation, Fechner correlation, sufficient set, multiple hypotheses testing procedures
JEL classification:C02
E.A. Ostrovskaya, Saratov Regional Division of the Volga-Vyatka Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Saratov, Russia
D.S. Mamontov, Saratov Regional Division of the Volga-Vyatka Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Saratov, Russia
K.A. Spiridonov, Saratov Regional Division of the Volga-Vyatka Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Saratov, Russia
I.V. Levyy, Saratov Regional Division of the Volga-Vyatka Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Saratov, Russia
Analysis of interregional migration flows in Russia in the context of certain types of migration
The impact of interregional migration on regional economic and social sphere necessitates the determination of migration factors. An analysis of existing studies has shown that gravity models can be considered the most effective tool for migration flows analysis. At the same time existing studies show a weak elaboration of approaches that involve the separation of migration into different types depending on the goal of the relocation. The purpose of the article is to analyze the interregional migration flows in the context of types of migration identifying a set of factors that determine a particular type of migration. The main result obtained by the authors is the determination of three regional clusters that attract a certain type of migrants. Clustering was carried out using a set of indicators with a model-oriented clustering methods. The main conclusions made in the article are related to improving the quality of models when dividing regions into clusters and including different variables for certain types of migration. However, the authors note that the input data for the analysis is somewhat noisy, since it contains migrants of all ages. Therefore, the obtained regional groupings by type of migration are only the first approximation of differentiation by type of arriving or departing citizens. The results of the study can be used for further work on the definition of the determinants of interregional migration, as well as for studies on the impact of migration on regional labor markets and socioeconomic situation of regions.
Key words: interregional migration, labor migration, student migration, migration of retired (aged) citizens, gravity models, panel data, clustering, regional heterogeneity
JEL classification: R15, R23
A.I. Pishnyak, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
N.V. Khalina, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
E.A. Nazarbaeva, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
A.R. Goriainova, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
The level and the profile of persistent poverty in Russia
Experts who work on the poverty issues agree that the group of poor is very heterogeneous. Based on duration of living below the subsistence level, authors identify persistent and transitory poverty. Income of those who face persistent poverty stays below the poverty line for a long time, while those who suffer from transitory poverty have unstable situation: after overcoming poverty for some time many of them can face the problem of low income again. Different methods exist for evaluating of the level of persistent and transitory poverty on both panel and cross-sectional data. The article presents the detailed description of advantages and limitations of different approaches to persistent poverty measurement. After consideration of these approaches the analysis of persistent poverty in Russia on RLMS HSE data is performed. Taking into account the huge set of previous studies we evaluate the share of persistently poor population according to methodology adopted in European countries, the profile of persistent poverty is also described. The results are compared with already existing data about chronic poverty in Europe.
Key words: poverty, persistent poverty, chronic poverty, transitory poverty, panel studies, income, social policy
JEL classification: C00, R20, I32
Yu.S. Evlakhova, Rostov State University of Economics, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
E.N. Alifanova, Rostov State University of Economics, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
A.A. Tregubova, Rostov State University of Economics, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Banks behavior patterns as a response to the population financial activity in the macroeconomic shocks in Russia
This paper finds out the behavior patterns of the Russian banking sector and systemically important banks in response to changes in the population financial activity under the economic shocks. The results show that the Russian banking sector has a behavior pattern that includes the sequence of actions: the outflow of deposits — vulnerability to non-repayment of loans — deposit bubble — credit bubble. We find no consistent evidence that systemically important banks show the same sequence of actions during the crises. We also find that the banking sector behavior and systemically important banks’ behavior varied in 2008–2009, but became the same in the crisis of 2014–2015. The coincidence of behavior patterns of the banking sector and systemically important banks increases the systemic risk. Research on intragroup differences between systemically important banks will allow finding solutions to reduce the risk.
Key words: deposits, retail loans, deposit bubble, credit bubble, systemic risk, exponential smoothing
JEL classification: G21, D14
S.P. Bushansky, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Inefficiency of road concessions in Russia: exception or rule?
It explores the contradiction between the optimistic expectations of public-private partnership (PPP) and the estimated socio-economic unprofitability of road concessions in Russia. It is shown that special national guidelines for assessment of PPP efficiency are not a barrier to the approvement of inappropriate, from a public point of view, investment projects. The official approval of such regulations suggests that the Russian design system is skeptical about the possibility of a compromise between public efficiency and PPP projects. In foreign practice, the regulatory traditional requirements for the positive social effect from the development of toll roads are generally preserved, but the expediency of toll (in comparison with free road) is usually «confirmed» by listing its theoretical advantages. The systematic absence of correct calculations, including the examples in methodological documents, indicates the prevailing skepticism of the decision-making system towards rationale of tolling. The main conclusion of the article is that the theoretical notions of PPP as an effective mechanism and at the same time the limited practical choice of its schemes, with an obligatory direct user tolls, are the reason for the mimicry of the investment design system, which is forced to arrange inefficient solutions for road construction.
Key words: public-private partnership, toll roads, socio-economic efficiency
JEL classification: : O220
Yu.D. Shmidt, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia
L.A. Krokhmal, Far Eastern State Agrarian University, Blagoveshchensk, Russia
N.V. Ivashina, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia
On financing the state assignments to higher education institutions to perform research and development projects
The paper presents the issues of higher education institutions research activities efficiency and financing. Empirical data on the Russian higher education institutions research activities efficiency have been investigated. A new model for higher education institutions research activities public financing has been suggested. The model developed a methodology for calculating subsidies for basic, guaranteed funding of scientific activities of universities, designed to compensate for the cost of simple reproduction of their scientific potential. The integral index, which allows accounting the influence of statistically significant factors on the total amount of research and development work performed by the University, is formed and justified by methods of econometric modeling. The proposed approach allows us to calculate the amount of guaranteed funding for the scientific activities of each university in the planning period with a known amount of financial resources allocated for the basic financing of scientific activities of universities in the country.
Key words: higher education institutions, research activities, financing, efficiency, integrated index, technique
JEL classification: I230, I220
O.N. Borokh, Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
China in Quesnay’s doctrine: Interpretations, translations, cultural aspects
The paper analyzes the Chinese influences on the doctrine of the French physiocrat François Quesnay from the perspective of the cultural specifics of the perception of economic and political ideas. The approaches of Chinese researchers were impacted by Marxist methodology, sinocentric views and fragmentary use of primary sources. The application of the Marxist concept of socio-economic formations supported the arguments that feudal Confucianism could not influence the views of physiocrats, which reflected the emergence of capitalist relations. In the 18th century opponents of the physiocrats used the comparison of the Tableau Économique with the scheme of the Chinese Book of Changes to disqualify Quesnay’s doctrine. For Chinese researchers this comparison became a confirmation of the value of the Tableau Économique and an incentive to search for the ideas of circular flows and equilibrium in both tables. The study of Despotism in China content confirms its connection with the actual historical China. It is concluded that Chinese scholars seek to interpret the historical precedent of the influence of Confucian thought on Quesnay’s doctrine in the context of plans to increase the global clout of China’s social sciences.
Key words: French Physiocrats, Chinese influence, concept of social formation, “Despotism in China”, “Tableau Économique”, Quesnay
JEL classification: : A12, B11, B24, B31
L.I. Jakobson, HSE University, Moscow, Russia
The community of researchers and “academic performance” evaluation
An evaluation of “academic performance” is considered in the context of performance management in the sphere of science. An emphasis is made on the dependence of the evaluation on interests and, accordingly, on an inherently unrealistic development of an “objectively correct” evaluation which would be unanimously approved by those whose interests are not identical. A variety of researchers’ interest is stated together with a lack of institutionalized norms for working out a consolidated position. At the same time, the paper points out the deep-rooted nonidentical nature of the interests of scientists and those who design and implement the policy in the sphere of science. The demand of policy subjects for the formalization of evaluations, even at the cost of roughening the realities is also underscorred. Considering these realities, the conclusion is made about the hopelessness of the search for ideal solutions. At the same time, another conclusion is made that “academic performance” evaluation implemented in the sphere of science management could gradually become more acceptable for researchers. However, it depends not so much on the study and discussions of various evaluation systems as on the development of the research community and the formation of conditions for an effective dialogue between the latter and the subjects of the science policy.
Key words: evaluation, interest, accountability, community, dialogue
JEL classification: A11
F.T. Aleskerov, National Research University Higher School of Economics, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
A.I. Kazachinskaya, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
D.S. Karabekyan, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
A.S. Semina, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
V.I. Yakuba, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Economic journals of Russia, their characteristics and network analysis
We study economic journals published in Russia and indexed in the Russian Index of Science Citation (RISC). We analyze citations of 466 journals for 2016–2020 and compare these journals using several metrics: total citation count, Hirsch index, Impact factor RISC, and Science Index RISC. We also use network analysis for citation graphs and compare journals by centrality indices: Copeland index and two new indices: Bundle and Pivotal. We found that “Voprosy Ekonomiki” is the only journal that is among the top-5 journals for all metrics. Other top journals differ for different metrics. We noticed that some top journals have a questionable reputation and the reason why they are among the top journals is a high number of publications, which makes classical journals less influential with respect to the metrics.
Key words: network analysis, Hirsch index, economic journals
JEL classification: C44, C63, C71
P.A. Minakir, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Khabarovsk, Russia
Research results and bibliometrics: Is a contradiction anatagonistic?
The legislative reforming of the Russian Academy of Sciences was activated in 2013. Not a consequence, but an important tool for the implementation of this reform and its deepening has become «digitalization» in the form of an exaggerated presentation of the results of scientific activity as bibliometric indicators, including the quality and number of publications. Based on the data of the Russian Science Citation Index the article examines the results of the policy of «increasing the visibility» of Russian economic science in the world publication space. It is shown that in a relatively short time, both extensive and intensive factors of increasing the publication mass are practically exhausted. At the same time, the qualitative parameters of publication activity turn out to be of low variability depending on the dynamics of the publications themselves. The issues of displaying the quality of scientific journals in bibliometric indicators are discussed. The conclusion is made that there is no antagonism between bibliometric and expert metrics when the latter prevail. A sequence of using these metrics is proposed for a comprehensive assessment of the results of scientific activities of organizations and scientists.
Key words: reform of science, productivity of scientific organizations’ activity, bibliometric data, scientific results
JEL classification: I28, O38, O39
E.V. Balatskiy, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow; Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
M.A. Yurevich, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
Russian economic science on the international market of “predatory” publications
The problem of “predatory” publishing has received well-deserved attention both in the scientific community and among the S&T managers. Previous studies have shown that this problem has a permanent and global scale and is particularly acute in certain scientific areas, including economic sciences. This research compiled a list of 45 sources, excluded from the Scopus database due to their violation of scientific ethics. Starting from 2015 Russian economists annually publish at least 1,000 papers in “toxic” sources, and on average for the period 2010–2019, almost every third publication of economics with the Russian affiliation was published in “predatory” journals. By the absolute number of “trash” publications during this period, Russia was the second only to India. In the formed “black” sources list, there are several journals with a clear focus on Russian economists — the share of their publications in the portfolio has exceeded 50%. The estimations show that the scale of the annual damage caused by the publication in “predatory” publications of Russian economists is comparable to the annual scientific budget of a fairly large economic university.
Key words: “predatory” journals, “trash” publications, academic publishing, bibliometrics, quartile, Scopus
JEL classification: A11, A12, A14
O.V. Tret’yakova, Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vologda, Russia
Russian economic studies in the Web of Science: Bibliometric assessment
The author assesses the state of Russian economic studies in 2016–2020, based on Web of Science Core Collection data. The dynamics of the publication productivity of Russian scientistseconomists is characterized, and a qualitative citation analysis of their works is carried out. We show that many Russian economic articles, published in the journals from WoS, are in Russian. The results of the citation analysis show that Russian-language publications are cited, on average, two times less often than the ones published in English. Consequently, they receive fewer references from the major international journals. The results of research allow forming proposals for increasing the visibility of Russian studies in the international space. One of the methods is a wider use of the bilingual publication model.
Key words: economic journals, publications by Russian authors, bibliometric indicators, citation analysis, international scientometric databases, Web of Science
JEL classification: A11, I23, I28
A.Ya. Rubinstein, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
N.A. Burakov, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences; National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Economic journals in the optics of scientometrics
The paper discusses the ranking of journals based on the alternative to Scientometrics, where the basic unit of information is not the citation rate of publications, but their qualitative characteristics, obtained on the basis of the regular sociological survey of the economists’ community conducted by the “Journal of NEA” in 2020. The empirical data obtained made it possible to determine the size of the audience of each journal. The paper shows that the size of the journals’ readership has a direct impact on the respondents’ assessments of the quality of publications and scientific authority of the journals. The ranking of economics journals by each particular criterion — “Interest in Journal Publications”, “Scientific Level of Journals” and “Public Prestige of Journals” is presented. Use of the “Multiway data analysis” methodology has provided measurement not only of particular criteria that reflect hidden relations between their characteristics, but also determined the weight function of their aggregation in the aggregate ranking of journals — the “Ranking-2020”. The article also contains a comparative analysis of ranking the journals on the basis of the “Rating-2020” and re-rating of the RSCI and criticizes RSCI criteria “Science Index” and “Public Examination”.
Key words: economic journals, ratings, ranking, bibliometric indicators, sociological survey, MW-analysis, journal clusters, “Science Index”, “Public Examination”
JEL classification: A11, A12, A14, I23, I28
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