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2019, Issue 4 (44). Abstracts
Studying the financial accelerator effect in a two-sector DSGE model for an exportoriented economy The article analyzes the financial accelerator effect in a two-sector DSGE model for an export-oriented economy with particular attention to TOT shock and monetary policy. Capital and labor are used for non-tradable and exportable goods production, but exportable goods production requires an additional factor – the "land". We found that the financial accelerator mechanism amplifies investment significantly and has almost no effect on the output. Amplification of the shocks is not symmetric: the fact of shocks acceleration or attenuation depends on the type of shocks and the form of monetary policy. Financial imperfections reinforce the impact of the TOT shock both under the managed exchange rate policy and under the floating exchange rate policy, but under the floating exchange rate policy the amplification is weaker. It is shown that the financial accelerator effect increases with diminishing of the role of the production factor "land" in exportable sector. We show that the attenuation effect in the presence of productivity shock in non-tradable sector is due to the weak growth of the rental price of capital. The weak growth of the rental price results in deterioration of entrepreneurs’ balance sheet and therefore the conditions for the functioning of entrepreneurs are getting worse. Key words: DSGE, financial accelerator, oil price shock, export goods production, monetary policy, Taylor rule, terms of trade (TOT)
The dynamics of stock price during their listing and delisting This article discusses the factors affecting stock quotes on the stock exchange, and assesses the reaction of the stock market to listing and delisting of shares from lists of stock indices. A review of the literature on this issue revealed a significant variation in the conclusions of various authors regarding the extent of the impact of these events on the stock trading characteristics. The article shows that one of the reasons for these differences is incorrect application of the methods for assessing the impact of listing and delisting on stock prices, based on the assessment of their deviations in these events compared to their volatility in the previous periods of time. A new method for estimating this effect is proposed — the method of "trends separability" — as well as the corresponding criterion for assessing the significance of deviations of stock price when listing and delisting them. The use of this technique allowed us to show that there is a stable pattern in the effect of listing and delisting on the nature of trading in relevant stocks. All calculations were carried out on the basis of daily data on changes in stock prices included in the Dow Jones index lists and excluded from them, for the period 2008–2015. Key words: stock exchanges, stock indices, listing, delisting, return, stock prices, statistics criteria, Dow Jones
Models of learning in games: An overview This survey analyzes central ideas and the current state of the economic theory of learning in games. In game theory learning can be thought of as both an alternative to equilibria and as a way to better understand the nature of equilibria. Outside of game theory, theory of learning shows economic theory (for example, the classic Cournot oligopoly) in a new light, provides interesting theoretical problems, is nontrivial from econometric perspective. It can be studied with experimental methods. It also links economics to unexpected scientific disciplines: biology, philosophy of rationality and computer science. However, existing surveys are not particularly accessible to beginners and are not accessible at all in Russian. This survey intends to fill these gaps. It can serve both as an introduction and as a short reference. We analyze issues of classification as well as the models themselves. Theoretical descriptions are illustrated with concrete examples. Special attention is devoted to the empirical and experimental work. We also draw conclusions and hypothesize on perspectives of the field and its future role in economic theory. Key words: reinforcement learning, fictitious play, rational learning, bounded rationality, models of learning
A.N. Loshchenkova, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute Moscow, Moscow, Russia The impact of exchange rate dynamics on foreign direct investments inflow to the Russian Federation The study reflects current issues of investment cooperation between the Russian Federation and foreign countries, the specificity of which has been particularly affected by Western economic sanctions and Russian anti-sanctions of the last four years. The economic crisis of the period 2014–2017 in the Russian Federation revealed a number of patterns related to changes in the exchange rate and the dynamics of incoming foreign direct investment (FDI) in Russia. In their study, based on macroeconomic modeling, the authors assess the impact of the level of the exchange rate on FDI inflows to the countries of the world and to the Russian Federation at the regional and sectoral levels. The results of the work made it possible to establish that strengthening the real ruble exchange rate increases the potential of the domestic market in the region, industry and the Russian Federation as a whole: there is an influx of FDI into the economy. The conducted study revealed the key areas of investment cooperation of the Russian Federation. Based on the studied experience and practice, the authors offer a number of recommendations for the Russian Federation on investment cooperation with foreign countries, taking into account the existing potential in various sectors and regions of the Russian Federation. Key words: foreign direct investments, exchange rate, Russian ruble, horizontal investments, vertical investments, Russian Federation
I.E. Kalabikhina, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia Gender aspects of tobacco epidemic in Russia The authors analyze the dynamics of smoking prevalence and tobacco associated mortality in the context of strengthening the state policy of tobacco control in Russia that started in the second half of the 2000s. During this period, the proportion of smokers steadily declined, almost exclusively due to male smoking. The authors’ estimates of the mortality from diseases caused by smoking, despite the positive dynamics, indicate the magnitude of the problem: in 2017 about 235 thousand people died from diseases caused by smoking, among them 212 thousand men and 23 thousand women. Like other countries at the mature stages of the smoking epidemic, Russia is experiencing a convergence in the smoking prevalence among men and women. While men quit smoking, women still support smoking in various educational and income groups. While Russian men have already passed peak smoking prevalence rates and moved on to the next stage of the epidemic, with high death rates from diseases caused by smoking (over 30% of all deaths between 35–69 years old in 2017), the peak of tobacco deaths among women (currently 7%) is still ahead. Russian women are slowly passing the stage of epidemic with high smoking prevalence. We associate this phenomenon with the incompleteness of the gender transition (the so-called "half-emancipation"), preserving motives to support bad habits in women. Key words: smoking, gender, tobacco epidemic, tobacco attributable mortality, gender transition
L.E. Limonov, National Research University "Higher School of Economics" (St. Petersburg Campus), International Centre for Social and Economic Research "Leontief Centre" (NGO ICSER "Leontief Centre), Saint Petersburg, Russia Disparity of "large" and "small" cities of Russia: A comparative analysis of indicators of economic development and social survey data In the study, the population of the Russian cities is conditionally divided by population size into two samples: "large" and "small" cities, and a comparative analysis of these groups is carried out. The main hypothesis of the study is associated with the intuitive assumption that disparity appears not only in objective indicators of socio-economic development, but also in subjective assessments of social conditions by residents of these groups of cities. "Compensation" of this disparity requires not only an effective local strategies in "small" cities, but also effective public policy measures, the rationale of which should be based on the provisions of economic theory and on the results of empirical research. The initial data of the study were the data of the statistical portal "Multi-Stat" and the data of the 4th and 8th rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS4 and ESS8) for Russia. Analysis of the polls revealed the differences and regional variations of subjective evaluations and human value orientations of the population, as well as statistically significant differences in the attitudes of residents of "small" and "large" cities to the role of the state in solving problems of social inequality and social protection. The population of "small" cities in Russia more actively supports the concept of the "welfare state". Key words: cities, city size, urban growth, subjective well-being, subjective health, welfare
M.Yu. Vasilyev, Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia Anti-monopoly policy in electricity: Efficiency of capacity price auction and legitimate conduct of suppliers There are requirements in Russian law to the behavior of suppliers. If some actions do not meet the requirements, the anti-monopoly authority will punish the supplier. There are different viewpoints on what behavior should be considered as well-founded. The paper considers approaches that aim to assess the behavior of power supplier from the viewpoint of a perfect competition market participant and from the viewpoint of cost recovery. The study indicates that different approaches to assess the behavior of capacity suppliers provide different results and supply curves. Capacity market in Russia requires bidding separately for each generating unit and it corresponds neither with the perfect competition model nor with dispositions of the Federal law "On competition protection", if the supplier operates more than one generating unit. Current requirements to conduct of capacity suppliers pose risk on them and do not correspond with efficient market from the viewpoint of industrial organization theory. It is suggested to change the bidding rules and conduct criteria – instead of unit-based bidding apply bidding by power plants and do not apply the criterion “monopolistically low price” to capacity supplier bids. Key words: electric power industry, capacity price auction, anti-monopoly policy, market manipulation, well-founded bidding
Economic magazines in the interior of a competitive market The article is devoted to the analysis of the conditions of competition and the possibility of cooperation between Russian economic journals in the face of increasing pressure on authors of scientific publications to publish the results of their research in journals indexed in international citation databases. The types of competition between journals are distinguished, the existence of two layers of such competition is justified — between commercial and classical scientific journals, on the one hand, and between the latter, on the other. The problem of unfair competition is considered. The reason for the failures of the arbitration is assessed and it is argued that it is the opacity and artificial monopolization of the decision-making process on the inclusion of certain journals in the RSCI citation base, which distorts the results of bibliometric and expert analysis of the competitive positions of journals. A method is proposed to modernize the final arbitration procedure by incorporating a collegial body into it at the final stage, including chief editors of leading non-profit type economic journals. Key words: economic journal, competition, citation base, bibliometrics, examination
Economy, economic science and economic journals The article analyses the current state of Russian scientific economic periodicals, defines the purposes of scientific journals publishing articles on Economics and Economic Sciences, in light of the problems of the Russian economy development. The role of «packaging» the scientific articles in the form of journal issues, which facilitates the reader’s orientation in the world of scientific publications, is shown. The necessity of maintaining and expanding the populations of specialised and general economic journals as a kind of intermediary between readers and authors is substantiated. Particular attention is paid to the mission of the economic journal as a carrier of reliable knowledge. The necessity of demythologisation of the Russian economic discourse, i.e. the rejection of a number of popular theoretical concepts that are uncritically and extensively used to solve practical economic problems is one of the tasks of the scientific periodicals. The expediency of coordinating the activities of the leading domestic economic journals and the creation of an association of such publications is explained. The functions of such an association may include: coordination of the activities of Russian economic journals in the field of preparation of publications on Economics and Economic Sciences; development of recommendations on changing (expanding or narrowing) the composition of journals publishing articles on Economics and Economic Sciences, taking into account the classification of journals; development of recommendations on determining the quality of publications and the quality of journals; improvement of the quality of articles’ review by creating a single base of reviewers, etc. Key words: economic journals, economic discourse, economic science, knowledge, economic worldview
V.A. Bessonov, National Research University "Higher School of Economics", Moscow, Russia Problems of becoming of a university economic journal in transition period The paper discusses the formation and development of a modern Russian university economic journal, using the «HSE Economic Journal» as an example. A brief outline of the development of the journal is given, the appearance of which was determined by the transformation processes simultaneously taking place in the economy, the community of specialists and the university. The development of the Journal at the present stage is discussed in more detail. The problems of choosing a thematic niche of the Journal, determining its target audience, language policy are considered. The expediency of the Journal’s orientation to the publication of articles devoted to studies of the Russian economy and other transition and post-transition economies is substantiated. Concentration on this topic allows us to realize the competitive advantages of Russian researchers, and the Journal is able to provide a qualified examination of manuscripts. The possibilities of improving the quality of published articles, issues of interaction with the academic community, and problems of professional ethics are discussed. Considerations are given for organizing an open full-text electronic version of the Journal. The issues of increasing its visibility in the academic and expert communities are considered. Key words: economy in transition; journal; Russia; university
L.I. Yakobson, National Research University "Higher School of Economics", Moscow, Russia Researchers and experts in the scientific journal Appeals to foster and more frequently publish papers focusing on distinctive features of Russian economy are not so much convincing in the context of the criteria characteristic of academic research per se but in view of the potential contribution of such works to a more rational economic policy-making. As a rule, however, for this contribution to be genuine and substantial, the outcomes of various studies should not only be summarized. They should be aggregated in a complex manner combining knowledge and intuition. This is achieved through specific intellectual practices, namely expert activities. Careful management of both expert activities and the interaction/ communications among experts and researchers are crucially important. The presence of expert contributions in academic journals can be a useful, although a minor aspect of such interaction. However at present, the integration (connection, mutual effect, integration) of research and expert papers on Russian economy is not regular and effective. Under these circumstances, academic journals can play relatively more significant role in the development of a common language, bringing closer the agendas and joining the efforts. Experience has shown that this task is difficult but not insurmountable. Key words: research, expert activities, publications, practical recommendations, mutual understanding, interaction
V.E. Dementiev, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Economic journals: Specialization against scientometrics The article discusses the prospect of conserving the scientific journals in an environment where new technologies for scientific publications, informing about research projects and their results are used more and more. SSRN electronic repository, ResearchGate social network can serve as examples of such technologies. The Institute for Mandatory Peer Review of incoming materials stands out as a fundamental advantage of scientific journals. He takes the activities of a scientific journal beyond simple mediation between authors and readers, turns the journal into a link in the research process. The difficulties of obtaining a high place in a general ranking table by a specialized magazine are presented. The relationship between the average value of the Hirsch index of the authors of the journal and its impact factor is considered. The formation of separate ratings for journals of similar specialization is proposed. The increased sensitivity of specialized journals to the volatile dynamics of scientific publications is noted. Fluctuations in the share of basic research funding in total research and development funding is one factor in this variability. Key words: scientometrics, specialized journals, ratings, journal impact factor, Russian Science Citation Index
A.Ya. Rubinstein, Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences; The RAS State Institute for Art Studies, Moscow, Russia Man shall not live by RSCI alone... The informational basis of the completed research was the annual sociological survey of the New Economic Association and the NEA Journal, conducted in the years 2018–2019, in order to clarify the attitude of the economic community to the 27 (twenty seven) currently published Russian journals, included in the data base of RSCI (Russian Science Citations Index) (section "Economics. Economic Sciences"). As a result of the obtained sociological information, the size of the readership of the analyzed journals was determined and their homogeneous groups were identified with similar characteristics of the readership within each of them and with significant differences between the groups. The ranking of economic journals was presented on the basis of the "Rating-2019" criterion, constructed, using the "Multiway data analysis", which provides a quantitative determination of the weight function of aggregating of private ratings, as well as the aggregate rating vector of journals, that reflect hidden relationships between their characteristics; by clustering journals, statistically homogeneous groups of journals were identified. The paper presented a comparative analysis of the ranking of journals, based on "Rating-2019" and RSCI ratings, censorious remarks (criticisms) were formulated, regarding the criteria "Science Index" and "Public Expertise", formed by RSCI. Key words: economic journals, ratings, ranking, bibliometric indicators, sociological survey, MW analysis, journal clusters, "Rating-2019", "Science Index", "Public Expertise" Back | ||
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