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2019, Issue 2 (42). Abstracts
On the Existence of Spatial Equilibrium and Generalized Fixed Point Theorems The problem of immigration-proof division into countries of a finite-dimensional area is studied. This is a kind of Tiebout equilibrium, in which the principle of migration consistency assumes that the border residents do not have incentives for the change of jurisdiction, i.e., at the point of their location costs of citizens for border countries are equal. It is assumed that a measurable population density is given and it is required that the cross-country boundary be represented by a continuous surface (curve). The proof of the existence of required division is based on the reducing of the problem to the searching of a fixed point. However, the conditions of classical theorems on fixed points of Brouwer–Kakutani or the "conical" Krasnoselskii’s theorem are violated. This led us to the development of their generalization to the case of a mapping, possibly acting outside the domain. It is proved that a continuous mapping defined on a convex compact has a fixed point if it satisfies one of two boundary conditions: "compression" or "expansion". This result also is extended to point-to-set "Kakutani maps": applying it, we prove the existence of an immigration-consistent division into countries of any compact finite-dimensional area in very general setting. Key words: Brouwer–Kakutani fixed points theorems, compression and expansion conditions, country formation, migration-consistent (stable) partition
The Measuring of Interest Rate Risk of Bond Portfolio This article considers the sensitivity to interest rates changes of market value of the bonds. In order to address this problem the model developing F. Macaulay’s approach based on the analysis of elasticity of present value of the cash flows on the bond expected to receiving is offered. The research leans on such general scientific methods as observation, comparison and formalization and such special methods as economic-mathematical modeling and the statistical analysis. Modern approaches to definition and analysis of interest rate risk based on perspective (Macaulay duration, complimentary duration) and retrospective (Value-at-Risk) analysis considered. The disadvantages and limitations of using these models described. The present article considers the model based on comparing the duration as a bond’s length of economic life with the extension to its maturity. Relative duration could be interpreted as a relative payback of investments in bonds rate. On the other hand, this indicator rather than Macaulay’s duration could be interpreted as a interest risk comparison ratio which does not depend on bonds terms and structure of the maturities which is the novelty of this methodology. This interpretation is proved by the statistical analysis of sample of 20 bonds with different levels of duration. The technique of the evaluation of interest rate risk of portfolio of debt market-base instruments is suggested. Key words: risk assessment, bonds, interest rate risk, Macaulay duration, relative duration, portfolio investment
Verbal Interventions as a Factor of Inflation Expectations in Russia Stability of inflation expectations is a necessary part of inflation targeting. Among many factors that may affect the dynamics of inflation expectations, one of the most important is the communication policy of the central bank and representatives of the government. This paper measures the effectiveness of verbal interventions by the Government and the Bank of Russia on the high-frequency indicator of inflation expectations from the stock market for the period July 2015 – December 2016. Dummy variables are used to characterize verbal interventions in terms of the degree of regularity, the source and the information contained. One of the main features of this paper is the analysis of the verbal interventions from individual representatives of monetary and fiscal policies. By the assessment of the model of conditional heteroscedasticity, we conclude that verbal interventions by the Bank of Russia and members of the Government of the Russian Federation accompanied by decrease of inflation expectations: key verbal interventions were statements about state budget deficit and future inflation. The results obtained can be used to develop the communication policy tools in future. Key words: inflation expectations, verbal interventions, communication policy, The Central Bank of Russian Federation, GARCH
M.V. Kukoverov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia On Price Elasticity of Electicity Demand The paper provides the econometric estimates of short-run and long-run price elasticities of electricity demand for different categories of customers. Both for residential and for non-residential sectors the estimates (in absolute value) of short-run price elasticity are low, while the estimates of long-run price elasticity are high. Consequently, long-run projections of electricity demand under expectations of increase of energy prices should take into account the long-run price elasticity. The estimates of short-run price elasticity for non-residential sector can be used in models of imperfect competition in the electricity market, under a number of assumptions, such as the absence or weak attention of the regulator, when possible strategies of economic agents (such as electricity suppliers in the spot market) may depend on the short-run price elasticity of demand. Key words: electricity demand, price elasticity of demand, sectoral planning, capacity excess in UPS, operations research, econometric estimation
M.G. Kolosnitsyna, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia Anti-alcohol Policy in Modern Russia: Development and Public Support In Russia, the anti-alcohol policy becomes more active. It applies different measures — price and restrictive instruments, as well as information. However, the anti-alcohol policy effectiveness is determined not only by the changes in volumes and externalities of anti-alcohol consumption, but also by attitudes towards it. Anti-alcohol policy effectiveness depends on public opinion on implemented measures. Thus, the aim of this paper is to analyze the level of public anti-alcohol policy support and its factors. The descriptive and regression analysis based on the data from two nation-wide polls in 2011 and 2017 show that, in general, the level of public anti-alcohol policy support in Russia is rather high: from 52 to 97% in 2017, depending on concrete measure. Women and young people are more inclined to support alcohol policy. Unhealthy habits cessation (smoking and alcohol), as well as their initial absence, enhance the likelihood of alcohol policy approval, in comparison with smokers and alcohol consumers. Education that was a correlate of favorable attitude towards anti-alcohol policy measures in 2011 has lost its significance among older people in 2017. Nevertheless, viewing promotions of healthy lifestyle becomes the significant factor increasing probability of anti-alcohol policy support in 2017. Key words: alcohol, anti-alcohol policy, price measures, restrictive measures, public support, Russia
E.M. Buchwald, Institute of Economics RAS, Moscow, Russia Institutional Problems of Spatial Development Strategies in Russia Serious conceptual and methodological problems, facing the implementation of federal legislation on strategic planning, clearly confirm the thesis that the main directions of such planning were not initially sufficiently and multisided justified. The latter is especially true for such a vector of strategic planning as strategic planning of the spatial structure of the Russian economy. Like in many other cases, the important priorities of spatial strategy have not been supported with the sufficient progress in institutional and instrumental foundations of the state policy of regional development, which is the main regulator of the spatial structure of the national economy. One of the most significant omissions in this regard is the lack of correlation between the spatial strategy and the regional development policy, which implements it and the improvement of the economic and legal foundations of Russian federalism. Meanwhile, in Russia, as a federal state, all the problems of spatial regulation in the economy can be effectively solved only on the basis of clear division of powers, interaction and the coordination of interests of the Federation and its subjects. The article concludes that in order to ensure successful implementation of socioeconomic reforms and the achievement of the goals of national projects, it is necessary to return to the tasks of federal reform and on this basis — to significantly strengthen the role of the subjects of the Federation as the actors of the entire system of strategic planning in the country. Key words: strategic planning, state policy of regional development, Federal relations, subjects of the Russian Federation
Yu.M. Gorlin, The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia Pension Gambit The article presents the results of the analysis of the impact of changes in the pension legislation adopted in October 2018 on the main parameters of the mandatory pension insurance system. It is shown that without raising the retirement age and maintaining the current structure of the insurance pension system until 2050, it would be possible to ensure the annual indexation of pensions in terms of inflation even with minimal economic growth. However, to maintain the ratio of the average pension to the average wage at the current level, raising the retirement age is only one of the necessary measures to stabilize the situation in the period up to 2028. The paper presents the impact of reducing informal employment, increasing the requirements for the length of insurance tenure and increasing the minimum number of individual pension points on the replacement rate. The estimates of tax rates and budget transfer amounts at which it is possible to ensure the replacement rate at the current level (33%) or increase it to 40% are given in for the period up to 2050. Key words: pension system, retirement age, replacement rate
Demography: Pros and Cons of Raising the Retirement Age Demographic aging has placed on the agenda of all developed countries the question of adapting existing pension systems to a new age structure, in particular, to the growing proportion of older people in the population. The authors emphasize that changes in the age structure leading to demographic aging result not only in an increase in the old age dependency ratio due to a rise in the share of the elderly, but also in a reduction in the child dependency ratio as a result of a decline in the proportion of children; thus, from the point of view of society as a whole, what matters are the dynamics of the total dependency ratio, which may even decrease. One of the main ways of adapting to the growth in the number and proportion of the elderly now, on the heels of many other countries, being pursued also by Russia, has been to raise the official retirement age. The article analyzes the question of how prepared, from a demographic point of view, Russia is to follow this path at present. The authors conclude that due to the long lag behind most developed countries in reducing mortality, Russia is objectively not ready for raising the retirement age, especially for men. While in Western countries such an increase, as a rule, does not lead to a reduction in the number of years of life in retirement, for Russian men such a reduction is almost inevitable. For Russian women, who now have an almost uniquely low retirement age, its raising will be less painful. Key words: retirement age; life expectancy; ageing from below; ageing from above; old-age dependency ratio; total dependency ratio
Raising the Retirement Age in Russia, or How Budget Mythology Exacerbates the Social Disadvantage of the Country The article is devoted to the assessment of socio-economic consequences of the decision to raise the retirement age in the Russian Federation. The decision to raise the retirement age was made as a result of the automatic transfer of the practice of Western countries. As the main argument of the needed decision on the age change parameters of the pension system in Russia adopted a statement on the inadmissibility of the growth of Federal budget expenditures on pension insurance, as it reduces the investment possibilities of the state. In addition, the proponents of raising the retirement age were based on the idea of absolute flexibility of the labor market, which will be able to take additional labor and will not have a situation with mass unemployment of persons of preretirement age. Also been assumed in which the labor market will not respond to additional labor through wage stagnation and the stagnation of contributions to the Pension Fund. The article deals with the main features of the Russian labor market, which affect the economic efficiency of the decision to raise the retirement age. In particular, it is pointed to the long-term trend of reducing the number of jobs in the observed economy. This creates a shortage of jobs in General for all categories of citizens and especially for people of pre-retirement age. Based on the analysis of the level of real wages in the economy, it is shown that with the current tariff of contributions to the FIU, it is necessary to balance the expenses and income of the Pension Fund (including reducing the transfer from the Federal budget), an additional inflow of labor, estimated at tens of millions of people. The factors of age discrimination, disability and fulfillment of social obligations that reduce the participation of the older generation in the labor market are also considered. Key words: increase of retirement age, pension reform, labor market, life expectancy
E.T. Gurvich, Economic Expert Group, Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russia Pension Policy and Population Ageing We are demonstrating that retirement age increase that started in Russia in 2019 was an inevitable implication of adverse demographic trends combined with the policy of keeping constant ratio of average pension to average wage, pursued by the government in 2010s. More general ‘Pension Trilemma’ is proposed which states that if number of pensioners per employee is rising there is no way to keep fixed pension benefit to wage ratio and retain pension system sustainability. Higher retirement age is acceptable as an increase in life expectancy (the major cause of population ageing) when it is accompanied with proportional growth of the ‘healthy life expectancy’ which is in a sense proxy for the age of incapacity for work. New indicators of ageing are defined as average numbers of years spent by members of a particular cohort in a working age and in retirement. We demonstrate that their ratio is rapidly shifting in Russia towards retirement period starting mid-2000s. Key words: pension reform, retirement age, population ageing
V. A. Danielyan, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia The Adventures of Pension Reform in Russia: Where Are the Mistakes? Pension reform continues for many years, but its goals have not been achieved: the attempt to introduce the fully-funded system failed, the Pension Fund still relies on the transfers from the state budget, and the increase in the retirement age has caused mass discontent among the population. Comparing the general recommendations for reforming (Polterovich, 2007, 2012a) and the actual policy, we find that the reformers repeated standard mistakes. They tried to copy the modern Western institutions, not taking into account the experience of developing countries and the present resources, as well as cultural and institutional constraints. They didn’t seek to compensate the losers; did not predict the natural reaction of citizens to reforms that reduce their welfare; they ignored a number of other costs of reform, including reducing the level of participation due to the exit of workers to the shadow sector. In addition, the goals of the reform were formulated not quite correctly. Besides, the analysis shows that, while continuing pension reforms, it is necessary to consider more consistently the requirements of gradualism and flexibility. Key words: pension reform, pay-as-you-go system, fully-funded system, retirement age, reform costs, gradual reform, institutional flexibility Back | ||
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