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2019, Issue 1 (41). Abstracts
A Network Model of Multilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates The objective of the paper is to propose a new network model of multilateral equilibrium exchange rates based on network theory. The model introduces a topological component into the exchange rate analysis, consistently taking into account simultaneous higher-order interactions among all currencies. The article argues that the evolution of nominal exchange rates can be modeled on a network, where the nodes represent individual currencies and the links among them represent weighted returns on a hypothetical investment in each currency. For the purposes of this article, a multilateral exchange rate network is represented by multilateral dependent changes in bilateral exchange rates. The currency demand indicator (CDI), an elementary cell of the network model, is defined as weighted log-returns on each currency. The CDI provides a useful proxy for demand for each currency from other currencies and reflects all underlying balance of payments flows. The model identifies the stationary position of the exchange rate network, i.e. the episodes of minimal temporal variety of the CDI, when weighted returns on the links are close to zero. The stationary position of the exchange rate network points to the equilibrium levels of bilateral exchange rates for each currency pair. The model applies mainly to currencies with floating exchange rate regimes, although useful information can also be obtained for currencies with pegged exchange rates. For illustration, the model is applied to bilateral daily 1995—2016 exchange rates among130 currencies sourced from the Thomson Reuters Datastream. Key words: exchange rate, networks, equilibrium, trade
Habit Concepts in Economic Theory and their Algorithmization Suitability Despite the huge and obvious role of habits in human life, the topic remains little cultivated by economists. On the one hand, the development of economic theoretical approaches is slow; on the other hand, borrowings from related sciences are insignificant. We provide an overview of the current state of economic research on the topic of human habits. This scientific area remains fragmented and underdeveloped; habits are being mentioned in a big number of works, including the classical ones, but mainly in passing. The habits exposed in publications often happen to be too specific and in too many cases the research does not go beyond stating the existence of a habit itself and the nature of its influence on the other elements of the environment or theory. Therefor we propose a classification of economic concepts of habit, we trace the interpretation ambiguity of this notion, and we discuss the issue of formalizing and algorithmizing the habit concepts. The analysis pays special attention to the degree of investigation of the life cycle of habit: how it is formed, lasts and dies. Key words: habit, behavior, decision, social habit
What High-Tech Companies in Russia Grow Faster and Why? The study aims to identify domestic, industry and regional growth factors for high-tech companies in Russia in 2010—2014 during economic growth decline. Econometric calculations are based on a sample of seven thousand firms of the five most technologically advanced industries: pharmaceuticals, aerospace, medical equipment, computer and information technology. According to the results of foreign studies and sample analysis, we formulate several hypotheses. As a result, the growth of technology firms in Russia primarily depends on the basic factors: firm’s age and size (negative impact), capital and labor growth (positive impact). Start-ups, when processes become more complex and equipment deteriorates, must be ready to slow down growth rates regardless of increase in employment and investment. However, two factors have been identified, that contribute to maintaining high growth rates: access to international markets and entry into the state corporation. These factors determine the company’s value-added chains switching in and the company’s access to permanent sales markets; in the second case it is also the public defense procurement. The impact of foreign owners and intangible assets on the growth has not been identified. Regional conditions (access to human capital, markets and technologies), with a correct assessment, do not affect the firms’ growth, as they already operate in the regions with the most favorable conditions: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Moscow and Samara regions, Tatarstan. In conclusion, a number of tools to support high-tech companies are proposed, aimed at upgrading fixed assets, improving access to qualified personnel, supporting export, technological innovation, and shaping entrepreneurial ecosystems. Key words: firm’s growth, high technology, intangible assets, innovation, export, state corporation, Gibrat law, intrapreneurship, multi-level modeling, defense industry
A.Yu. Knobel, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia Patterns of Russian Firms’ Export Pricing The main objective of the study is to explore the patterns in the Russian exporters’ prices behavior depending on the characteristics of the importing country. Theoretical models of the heterogeneous trade theory suggest two main mechanisms for the emergence of sustainable differences in prices between different export directions — quality differences and price discrimination. The presented estimates on the Russian detailed customs statistical data for 2004—2015 indicate that Russian export prices are on average higher when goods shipped to richer, more remote countries and countries with larger markets. These regularities are driven mostly by the quality selection, to a lesser extent – by the price discrimination. Moreover, the discovered mechanisms are most pronounced in the behavior of export prices of differentiated goods. The results of the study suggest that the competitiveness of Russian firms is mostly related to product quality and improving access of the Russian firms to high-quality components can be considered as one of the possible ways to expand the presence of Russian manufacturers in the world markets. Key words: export, heterogeneous firms theory, product quality, vertical differentiation, horizontal differentiation, price discrimination
A.A. Sinyakov, Bank of Russia, Moscow, Russia Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect on Producer Prices of Final Products Based on Micro-Data of Russian Companies In this paper we directly estimate exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to producer prices in some industries of final goods. For this we use survey data on import content of firms’ costs according to the survey conducted by the Bank of Russia in yearly 2017. Thus, we contribute to existing ERPT estimates for Russia based on aggregate industry- or economy-wide data. In addition, to account for possible strategic complementarities and variable markups in the estimate of ERPT, we use the survey data and other industry data to calibrate the model by (Amiti, Itskhoki, Konings, 2016). Our results show, first, that ERPT of final goods’ producers is around 0,18. Second, according to the survey data, ERPT is asymmetric. It is twice as lower for rouble appreciations as for its depreciations. Third, strategic complementarities in the agriculture and the food producing industry cause ERPT relatively stronger deviate from its direct estimate based on import content in production costs comparing to other industries. The results have important implications for estimating inflation volatility of food products in the consumer basket and for financial well-being of companies in the industries with high strategic complementarity. Key words: exchange rate pass-through, inflation, strategic complementarities, markups, imports content of production cost, survey data
N.A. Osokin, Center of sectoral research and consulting, Department of management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia TV Broadcasting of Major Football Tournaments in Russia: Economic Context and Consumer Preferences The study evaluates the economic context of major football competition broadcasts as well as identifies the determinants of their viewership in Russia. The authors perform a multivariate linear regression in order to derive the significant factors that explain the popularity of televised football matches. The research sample includes 300 games from World Cups and European Championships, which were broadcasted via Russian federal channels from 2006 to 2016. The list of independent variables includes week-day and time of broadcasts, tournament stage, channel, match quality, fans’ preferences, “patriotism” and in-game changes. As a result, it was determined that ex ante variables show a much higher predictive power than gamespecific factors. A few surprising findings are worth highlighting: weekday broadcasts were able to attract a larger audience compared to weekend matches; if Russian referee was officiating the game, then its broadcast would experience an increase in spectators’ interest. In conclusion, the findings of this paper are compared with previous researches. Key words: sports economics, television broadcasts, sports broadcasting, FIFA World Cup, UEFA European Championships
B.L. Rudnik, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia Public Funding Mechanisms of Organizations of the Socio-Cultural Sphere The paper considers the evolution of public funding mechanisms of organizations of the socio-cultural sphere. The most significant transformations of these mechanisms are highlighted and analyzed. The subjects of such transformations are: a) methods for determining the amount of budget funds allocated to institutions; b) requirements (or their absence), accompanying the provision of funds; с) degree of freedom of institutions in the disposal of funds. The analysis concludes that there is no noticeable progress in the development of these mechanisms. Special attention is given to the current transformation determined by involvement of private organizations into provision of socio-cultural services, particularly NGOs. Two possible ways of conducting such transformation are pointed out: decentralized (that takes place today), when the transformation is carried out relatively independently by sectors of the social sphere and the subjects of the Russian Federations and “centralized” transformation, when it is carried out on the basis of rules established at the federal level that are uniform for all branches of the social sphere, as well as regions and municipalities. The advantages and disadvantages of each option are identified. In conclusion, the main problems that led to the failure to improve considered mechanisms are discussed. Key words: socio-cultural field, public funding, grants, institutions, NGOs
Financial Support for Science This paper aims to show that nowadays science is a part of research and development system (R&D) providing not only pure scientific progress but also the need of economic and social development. The adequate support for science thus goes as from the government and from business. Theoretically it was proved by the economics of science and economic growth empirical research. We see predominance of all developed countries in term of absolute and relative to GDP scale of R&D support in comparison with less developed countries. Dynamics of economic growth in the big developing countries underlines the hypothesis of entrepreneurial R&D support by industrial companies as a factor of economic progress. Russian science and R&D system formed mainly in the Soviet times as totally supported by the government is still in a process of very slow transition to increase industrial R&D activity and business support. Key words: economics of science, R&D and economic growth, international comparisons, national project “Nauka” (“Science”)
R&D in the USA: Funding, Structure and Results The article gives an estimation of scientific and technological potential in the USA in the end of second decade of 21 Century. The article analyzes the source-performer matrix of R& D and achieved results in research and innovations. The author considers positions of the USA in world science by absolute volumes as well as by share of domestic GDP. The article demonstrates the role of most important sectors of R&D (government laboratories, industry, universities, non-profit organizations, state and local authorities) by sources and performance. The role of universities is disclosed as a key sector of basic research. Also the role of industry is shown as leading producer of applied research and innovations. It emphasized also the significance of non-profit research organizations for social and humanitarian studies. A special attention is paid to the role of government in development of American science. The author reviews the significance of legislation in developing R&D in the USA, the role of government regulation in this sphere, the place of government laboratories in scientific process. Also the article describes the effectiveness of American R&D. It is resulted in different indicators, including a number of Nobel prizes, patents, citation indices, positions in various technologies. Key words: USA, GDP, scientific-technological potential, research and development (R&D), results of research, innovations, government regulation
V.Yu. Muzychuk, Institute of Economics RAS, State Institute for Art Studies, Moscow, Russia Financing of the Arts and Culture in Russia: A Step Forward and Two Back… The article analyzes cultural expenditures in Russia over the past two decades and more, both in the sphere, and in the context of the types of cultural activities. The paper also analyzed the possibilities of public cultural institutions to earn incomes, as well as to attract charities and sponsorship by type of institutions (theaters, concert organizations, museums, libraries and recreational centers). The current situation with financing of the arts and culture in Russia is characterized with: retention of the “residual principle” of financing, low priority of culture in the macroeconomic policy of the state, the prevalence of direct budget funding, the imperfection of the institutional environment for attracting additional sources of public support for the arts and culture. Despite sporadic attempts to build a multichannel system for financing of the arts and culture over the last quarter of a century, the palette of extrabudgetary funding opportunities is still monochrome. Creating a multichannel system for financing of the arts and culture in Russia requires serious tax reform, local government reform, and a departure from a purely accounting approach, in which development is hampered in favor of maintaining the existing status quo. Key words: cultural economics, public support for the arts and culture, cultural expenditures, cultural policy, charities and sponsorship in the arts and culture
I.V. Abankina, Institute for Education Studies of National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia Financing of Education: Trend on Personalization This article analyzes the ratio of funding higher education in Russia and foreign countries. It is shown, that at a similar cost structure in Russia compared to other countries, and their monetary value is three times behind the level of the OECD countries. On the basis of generalization of foreign experience of reforms in the management of the financing of higher education research identified the major trends in the financing of Russian higher education: university leaders support concentration, reliance on public higher education financing as the main source, poor use of publicprivate partnership arrangements and income from funds of the trust capital. The focus of the article is on the transition to investment financing models of education transfer management of resources based on principles of personalization, including such tools as performance based contracts, competitive funds and vouchers, based on merit, human capital contracts, as well as individual educational accounts (lifelong learning accounts) as personal investment resource. It is these mechanisms that begin to play a key role in the resource development of education. Key words: higher education financing, universities’ fiscal policy, expenses on education, financial restrictions, income diversification
A.Ya. Rubinstein, Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, State Institute for Art Studies, Moscow, Russia On State Investments in the Humanitarian Sector of Economy A theoretical and methodological substantiation of a fundamentally new approach and the corresponding method of determining the volume of public investment to producers of patronized goods in the humanitarian sector are presented. It is based on an assessment of the income deficit of these organizations, taking into consideration the objective economic laws that determine the conditions of their activities, and social norms, established by the state. As social norms, the level of purchasing power of consumers of patronized goods (through the mechanism of prices for these goods and services) and workers of organizations of the humanitarian sector of the economy (through the mechanism of payment for their labor) are considered. Testing of the proposed model showed that the amount of actual budget subsidies to organizations of the humanitarian sector turned out to be significantly lower than their model value and was clearly insufficient, thereby causing undesirable processes of commercialization, accompanied by a superinflationary increase in prices for patronized goods and by. a decrease in their availability for the population. Key words: patronized goods, investments, human capital, “cost disease”», lag in labor productivity, regulatory costs, income deficit, subsidy, price indices
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