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2015, Issue 3 (27). Abstracts
Analysis of Energy Price's Impact on Shadow Economies Around the World We assume that a growth of energy prices could create incentives for the firms to hide their incomes. To verify this hypothesis we analyze a model of a representative firm that optimizes the size of the hidden income under conditions of non-rigid external control. We found that an improvement of institutional environment in the economy helps to reduce the share of hidden income in the total revenue. To test the hypothesis suggested empirically we run regressions for the variables of shadow economy in GDP shares within the time period 2003–2008 using both already existing data on the size of shadow sector in the other economies and the data constructed by the authors on the basis of modified demand for money method. As opposed to the modifications used before, our methodology is applied to cross-country samples. Using in the regression a specific interaction term being a combination of a tax burden variable and the institutional strength index made it feasible to take into account an important fact that under bad institutions a higher tax level means also a higher shadow economy size but given good institutions – vice versa. Moreover with implementation of model calibrating we applied an estimating algorithm that enables the presence of foreign currency (US dollar in our case) in shadow economy's transactions. Finally our hypothesis was confirmed both using cross-section and panel data analysis, estimations demonstrated stability of its value and sign whatever method of analysis has been used. Key words: shadow economies, energy prices, institutions, econometric methods
The Technical Efficiency of National Economies: Do the Institutions, Infrastructure and Resources Rents Matter? In this paper, we propose an idea of introducing the basic statement of the economic development theory on the role of institutions in economic growth and the infrastructure proxies into the augmented five-factor production function. As the fourth and fifth factors, we employ the aggregated index of institutional development designed by the Fraser Institute and the WDI indicators of infrastructural conditions, respectively, alongside with the standard set of labor, physical and human capital. We show that the correct estimation of total factor productivity requires, first, extracting resources rents from the output proxy. This allows eliminating of the exporters of natural resources from the top-10 technological leaders. Second, adjustment of output by Hodrick–Prescott filter is carried out. This has excluded the transfer of the output cyclical component to the technical efficiency indicators. Our analysis has shown that the technological progress is more rapid in developing countries as compared to developed economies. We perform our estimates under Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) obtaining data from the World Bank, IMF, Fraser Institute and UNESCO on 140 countries over the 1980–2010. Key words: production functions, institutions, infrastructure, resources rents, technological efficiency, SFA, Malmquist index
Trade Effects Estimation for the Сase of Eurasian Economic Space Countries: Application of Regional Gravity Model The article develops a methodology of manufactured goods trade effects estimation for the case of Eurasian Economic Space (EES) Countries (Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan). The approach is based on projection of intra-country trade gravity model estimates on trade within EES countries. We consider the "border puzzle" in trade to be an extra long-term effect of integration. The model is estimated using data on manufactured goods trade between Russian regions in 2012. We provide a comparative analysis of a wide range of econometric approaches, including simultaneous-quantile regression, scarcely used before for gravity model estimation. As a result, we choose a model, which provides the best fit between actual volumes of trade between regions and the model-based ones. We have shown, that Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator provides the highest accuracy of estimates. According to our estimates the highest increase of trade is expected for trade flows between Belarus and Russia, as well as for Russian export to Kazakhstan. Key words: gravity model, Poisson estimator, regions of Russia, Eurasian Economic Space, "border puzzle", integration
Middle Classes at Different Stages of Life Course In this study a multicriteria stratification scale of the Russian society is constructed on the large-scale sociological research data. Keeping the continuity of middle classes methodology since the beginning of the 2000s, three equal-weighted criteria are used – wealth and property, social and professional status and self-identification. Together with our previous results the study shows the whole social structure to be very stable. For the last 15 years the size of the Russian middle class has remained constant, at about 20%. To analyze the prospects of the middle classes we modify stratification scale with regard to age criteria. The proto- and the post-middles are identified. The resource bindings are investigated for different social groups in their upward movement. Income growth is shown to have limited effects on the middle class increase. Key words: middle class, social mobility, sociological data
The Cluster Policy Organizational Structures The article reveals the concepts and the specific characteristics of the cluster policy, describes its generic problems inherent in the transition economies, including Russia. Authors describe possible directions of cluster policy realization in Russia. It is shown that many vital issues of the cluster policies implementation lie in its organization. Based on the example of the Scandinavian countries, that recognize the importance of the cluster approach, authors describe the organizational aspects of the implemented cluster programs. Authors define three types of cluster policy organizational structure and reveal the central role of the specialized agencies, whose analogues in Russia can be the regional centers of cluster development. Authors propose a typology of cluster policy organizational structures that differ in the number of involved ministries and specialized agencies, the types of relationship and object of regulation, functions and status of the authorized agencies. This typology is used to categorize the experience of cluster policy implementation in different countries. It is shown that under similar conditions the organization of cluster policy can take many forms and vary with time. Key words: clusters, cluster policy, organizational structure
Can Uzbekistan Economy Retain Its High Growth Rate? Scenarios of Economic Development in 2015–2030 Uzbekistan in recent 10 years is an extremely successful economy – high growth (8% a year), low domestic and international debt, undervalued exchange rate, relatively even distribution of income, creation from scratch of competitive export oriented auto industry. It is important though to avoid "dizziness from success" and to envisage possible growth traps in the future. Two unfavourable scenarios are discussed – negative terms of trade shock due to the decline in cotton, gas and gold prices (a deterioration of the current account balance by 10 p.p. of GDP) and a decline in growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP), as well as possible government responses to these shocks, in particular, changes in industrial policy. It is argued that current industrial policy – support of heavy chemistry industries (production of synthetic fuel and polypropylene goods from natural gas) with relatively low level and growth rates of TFP – can be less efficient than previous successful support of auto industry. Key words: Uzbekistan, scenarios of economic development in 2015–2030, industrial policy, reaction to shocks, terms of trade, total factor productivity
Architecture of the Pension Institutes in Russia: Status and Perspectives Pension security systems are facing new challenges: new situation on the labour market, aging population, problems for their financing. Author proposes to link system of wages and pension systems from the view of generations' expenditures, to link contributions to benefits. The ways of modernization of pension systems are shown. This process was associated with problems in the sphere of wages. Pension security reforms are compiled without creating the base for organization market institutes. Key words: pension institutes, wages, labour market, pension insurance, old-age population
Pension Age Increase in the Russian Federation: Demographic Conditions and Macroeconomic Consequences It is proved that the problem of "raising the retirement age" can not be regarded as an economic instrument to achieve a balanced budget of the state pension fund, in particular, and the whole of the pension system in Russia. Since the age of retirement in the pension system based on insurance principles depends primarily on the "external" factors for the pension system – mainly macroeconomic (volume and structure of GDP, inflation, payroll and distribution of income), as well as on the development and structure of the labor market (employment level and its structure). The main miscount of supporters of rendering automatically raising the retirement age on the basis of the linear dependence of the total increase in life expectancy, often even without gender differences, lies in the fact that in the insurance pension system, regardless of solidarity or a storage mechanism for the formation of pension rights, neither absolute necessity of implementing all the accumulated amount of pension rights for a reduced pension payment period, nor the increase of public pension liabilities for increasing the length of service prior to the raising of the retirement age are not taken into account. As a result of synergistic effect increase of the retirement age in pension insurance model leads after short and slight reduction of current expenditures on pensions to the subsequent exponential increase in public pension liabilities. Therefore, the only positive effect of raising the retirement age is to create conditions for a limited group of insured persons to increase the size of their pensions. Raising the retirement age is associated with the requirement to macroeconomic, social and labor conditions of the country in terms of creating additional jobs for young people and for the pre-retirement generations of insured persons. However, the external factors of the pension system, as shown by the Government approved the main directions of development planning and budgetary period 2016–2018, do not create the conditions for an adequate increase and are essentially limiters. The paper substantiates the economic mechanism of raising the retirement age on the basis of insurance principles formation of state pension liabilities. Key words: pension reform, pension age, number of pensioners, demographic loading on economy
The Compulsory or Voluntary Pension Accumulation: Different Approaches The article analyzes the basic models and the directions of reform of pension systems in OECD countries and some states of Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America. The emphasis is placed on controversial issues for the Russian system of combination of mandatory and voluntary pension savings, on the first results of the introduction of the mandatory pension accumulation in the Central and Eastern European countries. Developed countries generally adhere to the principle of voluntariness at the same time using a variety of options industry, corporate and public support of voluntary saving schemes. The introduction of mandatory funded component in the individual accounts of insured managed by both public and private sector was mainly in countries with economies in transition, especially in Eastern Europe. The results of these fundamental reforms did not fully meet expectations in the form of rapid development of capital markets and increase in national savings. The global financial and economic crisis of 2008/09 and the weakening of financial capacity of the state to support pensions reforms have led to a change in the structure of pension systems in several countries, a more realistic assessment of the limitations of mandatory funded systems. Key words: social insurance, multi-pillars pension systems models, compulsory and voluntary pension accumulation, quasi-mandatory systems, profitability of pension investments, pension fund deficit
Pensions in Crisis The article provides an assessment of the new pension reform. Its stated objectives were to make the pension system more balanced, especially from the perspective of financial security of obligations of the state to pensioners. But it could not improve the state budget. This is evident from the planned austerity measures (freezing of pension savings, limiting the size of pensions to citizens with high wages, benefits for early retirement, pressure towards raising the retirement age, discouraging working pensioners, etc.). At the same time new and scoring formula facilitates the state's manipulation of pensions depending on filling the Pension Fund, the state of public finances and not on personal wages and seniority. Key words: pensions, the pension system, pension insurance, pension reform, working pensioners, retirement age, the pension formula
Review of the XIV "Leontief Readings" International Conference: "Social Liberalism: between Freedom and Etatism" "Leontief readings" – an annual economic conference organized by the International Center for Social and Economic Research "Leontief Centre" (Saint Petersburg). First held in 2000, the conference has become one of the most significant scientific events in Russia. In 2015 the conference attracted more than 150 leading Russian and foreign scientists, politicians and experts. The concept of social liberalism introduced by A.Yа. Rubinstein was the starting point for discussion at the XIV "Leontief readings". Key words: social liberalism, economic policy, Leontief readings Back | ||
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