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2014, Issue 1 (21). Abstracts
Psychological Games in the Theory of Choice: Temptation, Perfectionism, Self-deception In this paper we give a survey of recent work on game theory devoted to modeling decision making under bounded rationality. An agent’s deviation from rational choice understood as maximization of gain can be caused by moral principles (religious beliefs, altruism, patriotism), emotions (envy, wrath, shame, regret, or guilt) or simply by an attempt to comply with several criteria not reducible to a single one. Key words: binary relation, preferences, utility function, two-period choice model, set betweenness axiom, temptation, self-control, perfectionism, self-deceit
Ethnic Human Capital Externalities and Inequality in a General Equilibrium Growth Model This study deals with economic growth and income and wealth distribution in an economic growth model of heterogeneous households with economic structure and ethic-based human capital accumulation. The model emphasizes the role of ethnic human capital externalities on economic structural change and wealth and income distribution. It is based on Arrow’s learning and the two core theories in economics – Walrasian general equilibrium theory and neoclassical growth theory. The economic system consists of one capital goods sector, one consumer goods sector, and any number of households (types). The motion is described by a set of differential equations. For illustration we simulate the motion of the economic system with three ethnic groups. We identify the existence of a unique stable equilibrium point. We also carry out comparative dynamic analysis. The comparative analyses provide some insights into the complexity of economic growth with ethnic human capital externalities. Key words: Walrasian general equilibrium theory; ethnic human capital externalities; neoclassical growth theory; income and wealth distribution; integrated theory
Sovereign Risk and Monetary Policy In times of fiscal stress monetary policy impacts the probability of sovereign default alongside inflation dynamics. (Uribe, 2006) studies monetary policy that conducts inflation targeting controlling the risky interest rate; he concludes that in the presence of fiscal stress low inflation can only be maintained if the government sometimes defaults. This paper follows (Uribe, 2006) by examining monetary policy that controls the risky interest rate; however, unlike in (Uribe, 2006), in this paper the central bank minimizes the probability of default under the upper restriction on inflation. This framework avoids the issue of zero risk premium that exists in (Uribe, 2006), while at the same time allowing a study of the relationship between the constraints on the monetary policy, the equilibrium default rate and the risk premium. Key words: inflation, sovereign default, government debt, monetary policy
Improving the Methods for Estimating the Structure and the Basis of Export Potential through Export Diversification We modify the Hausmann–Klinger approach to estimating export potential and make it able to describe perspective shifts in export structure and identify commodity groups that form the basis for growth and structural change in exports. Key words: export diversification, export potential, product space, comparative advantages, export basket proximity
A.A. Kurdin, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Department of Economics, Center for Competition and Economic Regulation Studies, The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia Protection of Intellectual Property Rights and Competition Policy: Seeking for a Better Balance Competition policy and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection policy play a significant role in the innovation-based economic development. The authors of this work consider different combinations of these policies through the lens of discrete structural alternatives assuming opportunities for different regimes of IPR protection, as well as for antitrust. The analysis is focused on 4 main alternatives: strong and weak IPR protection, on the one hand, and two types of competition policy, based on a possible introduction of compulsory licensing, on the other hand. The result of the analysis shows that the introduction of compulsory licensing under a weak IPR protection weakens incentives for innovations. Key words: competition policy, antitrust policy, compulsory licensing, intellectual property rights V.V. Popov, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, New Economic School, Moscow, Russia An Economic Miracle in the Post-Soviet Space: How Uzbekistan Managed to Achieve What No Other Post-Soviet State Has Uzbekistan is not usually considered an economic success story, but in fact it is: its GDP increased since 1989 more than in any other post-communist country, except for China, Vietnam and Turkmenistan. The success of Uzbekistan is very much similar to the Chinese – gradual economic reforms with the preservation of the capacity of state institutions, good macroeconomic policy and export oriented industrial policy. What makes Uzbekistan unique is that no other former Soviet republic managed to follow this route. There are countries with healthy state finances and low inflation (most FSU states), there are some countries with reasonable state capacity (Baltics, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan), but there are no countries that keep undervalued exchange rate together with strong tax stimuli for export of manufactures. Uzbek example shows that such a policy pays off. Key words: transition, growth, export orientation, industrial policy, Uzbekistan
Twenty Years of Transformation in the Post-Soviet Space and Economic Development of Ukraine The article is devoted to the analysis of the main factors influencing the development of the Ukrainian economy in the last 20 years. Compares the main results achieved by Belarus, Russia and Ukraine in the post-Soviet period. Provides the analysis of the basic aspects of the economic policy of Ukraine in comparison with other post-Soviet countries. Estimates the prospects of the Ukrainian economy and describes the range of activities that can increase the rate of economic growth in the country. Key words: economy dynamic, economy policy, integration processes, post-Soviet space
Main Stages and Results of Social and Economic Transformations in Ukraine Ukraine is now in deep crisis – on the verge of default, not having enough internal resources for development. Based on analysis of reform history for more than 20 years the author emphasizes the main causes of current situation: inherited structural disbalances in the national economy, absence of clear reform strategy and serious drawbacks in economic policy, superficial reforms by IMF recipes on the initial stage – the priority of financial stabilization at any price to the prejudice of real sector, sharp re-orientation of external economic relations, overestimation of economic advantages of European integration path, reduction of cooperation ties with Russia by political reasons. These have led to degradation of basic industries, conservation of technological backwardness, deficit of internal resources for modernization, chronic external indebtedness and high dependence on imports, – all this make national economy very vulnerable to external shocks in the times of global crises. Key words: Ukrainian economy, market reforms, external and internal factors of economic development, economic crisis
Ukrainian Population Opinion on Role of State: Surveys Results The changing attitude of Ukrainian population to state is investigated based on sociological surveys. The majority of respondents called for significant participation of state in economic governance, while not excluding market instruments. About one third of respondents wanted new model of social structure, but capitalism supporters were few. Unemployment was perceived as main economic problem. Based on analysis of respondents emphasis of state goals the conclusion can be made on existence in Ukrainian society the demand for another state model, which should be different from existing one and should be chosen. Key words: state, sociological surveys
Republic of Belarus: Twenty Years of Transition to the Market Article is devoted to a problem of market transformation of Belarusian economy and developing its national economic model. The author has studied political and economic reasons of the current economic policy and tried to answer the question, why Belarusian authorities wished to conserve existing Post-soviet economic model and how it influenced the economic situation. The study also takes into account the latest regional integration processes and Belaruse’ participation in Eurasian integration project. Key words: Republic of Belarus, Russia, economic reforms, market economy, integration, Union State of Belarus and Russia, economic model, deindustrialization, competitiveness, economic crisis, former Soviet Union
The Competitive Potential of the Belorussian Economy The article is an attempt to study the factors of the competitive capacity of Belorussian economy. There are two groups of factors of competitive potential and competitive advantagese’ formation: internal (changes in resource allocation) and external factors (adaptation to external shocks). The study found that the main source of the increase of competitive capacity of the Belorussian economy were foreign. The competitive potential of Belarus was formed on the basis of the increased exports. However, the high level of dependency on import and financial inflows, inefficient use of the resource base and production factors had led to a decrease in the competitive potential. Key words: competitive potential, export-oriented model of economy, net investments and withdrawals, productivity, inflation
Economic Development of Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus Countries (1989–2012) The article discusses the features of economic development of Russia and Asian countries – former Soviet republics. Different dynamics of the GDP of the studied countries during the period of their independence was due to many factors. In the main of modern economic growth of one group of countries are oil and gas resources, the other group – the "export" of labor. Key words: GDP, post-Soviet countries, the crisis in transition, economic growth, export potential, remittances
Y.Y. Chalaya, Department for the Macroeconomic Policy, Eurasian Economic Commission, Moscow, Russia 20th Anniversary of the Eurasian Integration: Retrospective Outlook in the Future The paper analyses an integration development in Eurasian region in the transition of post-Soviet states to the market principles of national economic cooperation. Eurasian integration stages and main achievements of the Member States of the Customs Union and Single Economic Space are studied as well as strategic objectives of the Eurasian Economic Union mentioned. Key words: Customs Union, Eurasian Economic Union, single economic space, integration, regional trade blocs
A.G. Pylin, Institute of Economics, Moscow, Russia Modernization Impact of Russia on the CIS Countries It is argued that the contribution of Russia to modernization of CIS countries is insignificant and is shown mainly in development of traditional productions with attraction of the technologies borrowed from the third countries. On the basis of the comparative analysis of the main indicators of transfer of innovations (foreign trade of machines and equipment, direct foreign investments) distribution of CIS countries on degree and channels of modernization impact of Russia is given. Key words: Russia and CIS countries, economic modernization, foreign trade of engineering products, foreign direct investment
D.I. Ushkalova, Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Macroeconomic Results of 20 Years of Transformation in CIS Countries: The Role of Investments The last more than 20 years of economic transition in CIS countries led to different results for different countries. Leader countries by economic dynamics (Turkmenistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Kazakhstan) could surpass global economic growth trend for the period 1992– 2012. The main factor of their success was achievement of high investment/GDP ratio, which allowed for acceleration of economic growth on separate time periods. Key words: CIS countries, comparative economic analysis, economic growth, investments Back | ||
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