2009, Issue 1-2. Abstracts
Vladimir I. Danilov, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russia
Modelling of Non-Commuting Measurements
In the paper we propose an approach which allows to discuss on formal level non-commuting measurements. Such measurements 'disturb' a measured system and change its states. The key structure used in the description of such measurements is the structure of ortho-poset (which is a Boolean lattice in the classical case of commuting measurements). States of the system are realized as probabilistic measures on the ortho-poset. We give an application of the proposed approach to decision-making under 'non-classical' indeterminacy and to modelling 'non-classical' preferences.
Full Text: pdf (218K)
Key words: first-kind measurement, inconsistent measurements, event, orthoposet, transition probability space.
JEL classification: C44, D81
Fuad T. Aleskerov, State University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia; Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, RAS, Moscow, Russia
Daniel C. Karabekyan, State University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Remzi M. Sanver, Bilgi University, Istanbul, Turkey
Vyacheslav I. Yakuba, Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, RAS, Moscow, Russia
Evaluating the Degree of Manipulability of Certain Aggregation Procedures under Multiple Choices
The authors would like to thank A.A. Zaslavskii and the anonymous referee for useful remarks.
The work of F. Aleskerov and D. Karabekyan was supported in part by Scientific Foundation of SU HSE, project no. 08-04-0008 and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 08-01-00039a. The work of V. Yakuba was supported in part by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 08-01-00039a.
The problem of manipulation in voting is studied in the case of multi-valued choice. Well-known and new schemes of preferences extension enabling one to compare all possible social choices under an arbitrary number of alternatives are presented. The known indices of degree and efficiency of manipulation are described, and new indices are introduced. These preference extension schemes and indices are used for computer-aided evaluation of the degree and efficiency of manipulation of the known voting procedures allowing multi-valued choices. The results obtained are presented for five voting rules.
Full Text: doc (1617K)
Key words: manipulation, multiple choice, voting, social choice
JEL classification: D7
Valery M. Marakulin, Institute of Mathematics, RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
Economies with Asymmetrically Informed Agents: the Concept of Limit Information
The research has been supported by the Council for Grants (under RF President) and State Aid of Fundamental Science Schools grant SS-4113.2008.6.
In this paper, a new concept of "limit information" is introduced and studied for Arrow-Debreu type economies with asymmetrically informed agents. The concept is based on the so-called contractual approach that presumes that agents meet and form coalitions, where the concurrent exchange of commodities and information is realized. So, in the course of a natural exchange process, the agents' information is repeatedly transformed and accumulated, and agents learn and achieve limit information. It is proved that, for a monotone information sharing rule, limit information is unique, i.e., it does not depend of the chain of coalitions implemented in the process of interaction between economic agents.
Full Text: pdf (225K)
Key words: exchange economy, contract, asymmetrical information, core.
JEL classification: C62, D51
Аlexandr M. Karminsky, Gazprombank, NES, Moscow, Russia
Anatoly A. Peresetsky, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, NES, Moscow, Russia
Ratings as Measure of Financial Risk: Evolution, Function and Usage
The rating agencies were emerged by the demand from market economy. Such agencies take the job of independent evaluation of the firms' financial strength, which allow firms decrease their expenses on their own market monitoring. It is extremely important with increasing number of potential business partners.
The paper discusses history of rating business, methods of assigning ratings, rating classification, function and the directions of use.
Full Text: doc (585K)
Key words: ratings, rating agencies, risk evaluation
JEL classification: G21, G32, G24
Evsey T. Gurvich, Economic Expert Group
Vladimir N. Sokolov, International College of Economics and Finance, State University-Higher School of Economics
Alexey V. Ulyukaev, Bank of Russia
Analysis of the Relationship Between the Exchange Rate Policy of the Russian Central Bank and the Interest Rates: Uncovered and Covered Parity
An important condition for the transition to the free float and inflation targeting regime is the ability of the Russian Central Bank to pursue an active independent policy of interest rate adjustment. The purpose of this investigation is to analyze the effect produced by the exchange rate policy of the Russian Central Bank on the money market and to assess the sensitivity of domestic interest rates to foreign rates through the covered and uncovered interest rate parities. Assessment of variations in the coefficients of the tested relationships at different stages of the Russian Central Bank's exchange rate policy will allow judging the success of the institutional development which prepares a gradual transition to free float and inflation targeting.
Full Text: doc (348K)
Key words: exchange rate regimes, interest rate parity, non-deliverable forwards
JEL classification: F31, F33
Sergey Ya. Chernavsky, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russia
Oleg A. Eismont, System Analysis Institute, RAS, New Economic School, Moscow, Russia
Is Gas Cartel's Profitable for Russia? (A Case of European Gas Market)
The problem of gas cartel formation is widely discussed in many countries, including Russia. Gas cartel can exist only within the world natural gas market, the latter being possible provided liquefied natural gas (LNG) becomes wide spread. Since for Russia, European gas market is of prime importance the paper analyses perspectives of gas cartel, relative to the European market. Equilibrium states of such a market have been found for the two cases - that of a competitive behavior of LNG exporters to Europe, and of gas cartel which includes Russia and LNG exporters. Conditions ensuring that Russia gets higher profit in case of participating in a gas cartel, rather than in case of competitive behavior of LNG exporters, have been obtained.
Full Text: doc (632K)
Key words: gas OPEC, Russian-European gas market
JEL classification: D4, Q4
Pyotr L. Vilensky, Interinvestproekt, Moscow, Russia
Sergey A. Smolyak, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russia
Paradoxical Behavior of Production Sharing Participant
We consider a mining or other extractive project, which is fulfilled on the basis of a production-sharing agreement. These agreements provide for production sharing on the basis of current IRR or current R-factor. The implications of using such production sharing mechanisms are studied with the help of simple economic-mathematical models. It appears that in some cases these mechanisms stimulate paradoxical behavior of the investor. For example, those variants of a project which require higher investments but return same yields happen to be more advantageous to the investor; and similar are those variants which provide smaller yields with the same investments.
Full Text: doc (2983K)
Key words: production sharing, agreements, mechanisms, efficiency, investor's behavior, paradoxes
JEL classification: H32, H25, L71
Natalia V. Zubarevich, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Independent Institute for Social Policy, Moscow, Russia
Regional Development and Regional Policy in Russia During Ten Years of Economic Growth
The paper shows spatial disparities in regional social and economic development under the influence of resource-related, geographic, scale and institutional factors. Leading and lagging regions are determined. Regional policy priorities are estimated in accordance with opportunities and barriers of spatial development of Russia.
Full Text: doc (210K)
Key words: regional economics, regional policy
JEL classification: R11, R12
Mikhail E. Mamonov, Center of macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting, Moscow, Russia
Oleg G. Solntsev, Center of macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting, Moscow, Russia
Foreign Banks Expansion to Russian Banking Sector: Interim Summation, Perspective Analysis Effort
This article is focused on analysis of foreign banks expansion to Russian banking sector and its influence on sector's basic indicators. It compares banking sectors of developing countries to find out the most attractive ones for further increasing of foreign investment. Then it analyses the possible interconnection between intensity of foreign direct investment inflows on emerging markets and economic conjuncture in developed countries. The article pays special attention to the positioning of foreign banks in Russian market to make known its possible competitive strategies.
Full Text: doc (258K)
Key words: foreign banks, investment attractiveness, bank strategy, bank's clusterization, foreign direct investment (FDI) intensity
JEL classification: G11, G15, G21
Yevgeny Sh. Gontmakher, Center for Social Policy at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
The Pension System of Russia after the Reform of 2002: Challenges and Prospects
This paper analyzes the main results of the pension reform started in Russia in 2002. Means of raising the level of provision of pensions are introduced. Special attention is given to the funded part of pension and to the reform of institutions of mandatory and voluntary pension insurance.
Full Text: doc (75K)
Key words: pension reform in Russia, mandatory and voluntary social insurance.
JEL classification: J32
Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission
Russia's Recent Economic and Reform Performance and Remaining Reform Challenges
This brief paper presents a comparative discussion of the economic growth and reform process in Russia during the 2000s. It also discusses the remaining reform priorities for Russia.
Full Text: doc (204K)
Key words: Russian economy, transition countries, transition indicator, structural reforms
JEL classification: P2, P5Вернуться